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Forbes Daily: U.S. Faces ‘Serious’ Recession Threat Due To Oil Prices

6 0
18.03.2026

More than 100,000 seasoned cybersecurity programmers recently faced off in a series of global hacking competitions, and 99% of them were supposedly bested by a non-human hacker: AI.

Using foundational models from OpenAI and Anthropic, Israeli startup Tenzai builds cybersecurity defenses that go on the offensive. Cofounder and CEO Pavel Gurvich tells Forbes the company’s AI was surprisingly adept at combining exploits for software vulnerabilities. It’s certainly cause for concern, but there’s also room for optimism.

If AI can exploit IT systems, it means just about anyone can launch potentially devastating cyberattacks. AI-bolstered defenses could also fix weaknesses before they’re exploited, setting up a race of which AI finds the problem first.

This is a published version of the Forbes Daily newsletter, you can sign-up to get Forbes Daily in your inbox here.

Economists offered a look ahead at climbing oil prices, warning that a range of $130 to $150 per barrel could be the price threshold that pushes the U.S. into a recession. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi wrote Monday that a recession is “once again a serious threat” and that the firm’s economic models placed the odds of a recession starting in the next 12 months at 49%.

On a normal day, about 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum would pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran is currently allowing a comparative trickle, with an average of just 500,000 barrels per day, according to Mike Haigh and the analysts at Societe Generale. And while energy prices may surge in the U.S., there’s little chance we’d actually run out—but nations like Myanmar, Vietnam and the Philippines are likely to face oil shortages after about a month.

President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that “most” NATO allies have said they don’t want to be involved in the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran, after he previously claimed that unnamed countries would assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The president also suggested Tuesday that NATO’s inaction could result in consequences for the countries.

WEALTH + ENTREPRENEURSHIP

When a little-known South Korean company started buying up dozens of supertanker cargo ships in December, rumors quickly emerged that the purchases were backed by billionaire shipping tycoon Gianluigi Aponte. A Forbes investigation confirmed that Aponte is indeed the true buyer of many of those ships—and with the Iran war sending tanker rates soaring, that now seems to be a well-timed bet.

Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav is set to receive a substantial payout—potentially making him a billionaire—if Paramount Skydance completes its acquisition of the legacy media company, according to a regulatory filing. However, the payout would be reduced by about one-third if the deal isn’t finalized by the end of the year, with a $335 million tax reimbursement potentially dropping to zero if it closes in 2027.

Pharmaceutical giant Roche announced this week that it’s launching a new, large-scale “AI factory” and has purchased thousands of Nvidia’s new Blackwell GPUs to accelerate the development of new drugs and diagnostics. Although the company declined to disclose how much it is spending on this effort, with Nvidia’s Blackwell chips costing between $30,000 and $40,000 each, it’s at least an estimated $65 million investment for the chips alone.

The House Oversight Committee investigating Jeffrey Epstein subpoenaed Attorney General Pam Bondi to review “possible mismanagement” of the government’s investigation into the disgraced financier. Five Republicans on the committee voted in favor of deposing Bondi. A Department of Justice spokesperson called the subpoena “completely unnecessary.”

This Argentine Billionaire’s Startup Vercel Is One Of Claude Code’s Go-To Web Hosting Tools

The day that Anthropic released its newest AI model last month, Vercel CEO Guillermo Rauch held an all-hands meeting at his company’s headquarters in San Francisco. He started with a set of slides outlining a few highlights in the timeline of how AI has advanced in its code-writing abilities.

It kicked off with Github Copilot in 2021 (which “could barely complete code”), then to ChatGPT a year later (where code ended up being “a killer use case”), on to Anthropic’s Sonnet 3.5 in 2024 (which “could clearly be trusted” with smaller bits of code).

Anthropic’s latest, Opus 4.6, felt like another one of those milestones. So much so, it triggered the so-called “SasSpocolypse” that wiped away billions of dollars in value from global software-as-a-service stocks, as investors worried those firms could be automated away.

It was a jumpscare for the market, but may be a harbinger of good news for Vercel, which helps developers to build, deploy and host web apps, and now, AI agents. It’s a classic picks and shovels story—selling supplies to the miners feverishly exploiting the gold rush: With the glut of new code generated thanks to AI, someone’s got to host it.

In September, Vercel raised $300 million, co-led by blueblood venture firm Accel and GIC, one of Singapore’s sovereign wealth funds. The fundraising round lifted the startup’s valuation to $9.3 billion, up from $3.25 billion the year before. The influx of cash also makes Rauch, an Argentinian immigrant, a billionaire, worth at least $2.1 billion, according to Forbes estimates.

WHY IT MATTERS Vercel isn’t a household name like OpenAI or Google, but it’s a crucial vendor for some of the world’s biggest brands, including Under Armour, Stripe and Sonos, who use Vercel to host their digital infrastructure. One of the most popular ways to view the Epstein Files, an interface called Jmail that mimics a Gmail inbox, is hosted on Vercel.

MORE Meet The $9 Billion AI Company Reimagining Vibe Coding

The cost of diesel—the primary fuel used for shipping—continued to rise Tuesday, as the ongoing war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt prices:

$5.04: The average price per gallon of diesel on Tuesday, according to AAA

$1.20: How much the price per gallon has spiked over the last 14 days, breaking a record previously set in 2022

$330 million: How much more Americans will collectively spend at the pump in one day compared to one month ago, according to estimates by GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan

Quick pop quiz: What activity consistently ranks among many people’s top fears, but is also one of the most powerful tools for leaders and business owners? Public speaking. Even in today’s increasingly digital world, being able to inspire a crowd or convey your authoritative vision will set you apart from the competition.

Canadian mortgage tycoon Stephen Smith became the latest billionaire to take a stake in a major media outlet. Smith’s family holding company acquired a 26.9% stake in which news publication?

Thanks for reading! This edition of Forbes Daily was edited by Chris Dobstaff.


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