In January 2026, US President Donald Trump declared Cuba to be an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to US security—a designation that allows the United States government to use sweeping economic restrictions traditionally reserved for national security adversaries. The US blockade against Cuba began in the 1960s, right after the Cuban Revolution of 1959 but has tightened over the years. Without any mandate from the United Nations Security Council—which permits sanctions under strict conditions—the United States has operated an illegal, unilateral blockade that tries to force countries from around the world to stop doing basic commerce with Cuba. The new restrictions focus on oil. The United States government has threatened tariffs and sanctions on any country that sells or transports oil to Cuba.

On 3 January, the United States attacked Venezuela and kidnapped President Nicolás Maduro Moros and National Assembly deputy Cillia Flores. As 150 US military aircraft sat above Caracas, the United States informed the Venezuelan government that if they did not concede to a list of demands, the US would essentially convert downtown Caracas to Gaza City. The remainder of the government, with no leverage in the conversation, had to effectively make a tactical compromise and accept the US demands. One of these demands was that Venezuela cease to export oil to Cuba. In 2025, Venezuela contributed about 34 percent of Cuba’s total oil demand. With Venezuelan oil out of the picture in the short run, Cuba already anticipated a serious problem.

But this was not all. Mexico supplied 44 percent of Cuba’s imported crude oil in 2025. Pressure now mounted from Washington on Mexico City to cease its oil exports to Cuba, which would then mean that almost 80 percent of Cuba’s oil imports would disappear. In a phone call between Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum and Trump, he claimed that he told her to stop selling oil to Cuba, but she denied that, saying that the two presidents only talked in broad terms about US-Mexico relations. Either way, the pressure on Mexico to stop its oil shipments has been considerable. Sheinbaum has stressed that Mexico must be permitted to make sovereign decisions and that the Mexican people will not buckle under US pressure. Cutting fuel to Cuba would cause a humanitarian crisis, so Sheinbaum said her........

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