Cuba has been considered in the United States for at least 60 years as a country that needs to be controlled and aligned with its interests, rather than free to determine its own course and future. The continuous efforts to undermine the Cuban Revolution by military invasion, economic blockade and other ways bear witness to this fact. Any attempt to implement regime change in Cuba, as was attempted in the failed Bay of Pigs invasion and through other actions more recently, will always be illegitimate, destabilising and potentially highly destabilising and therefore doomed to failure, as it has for generations and has always been considered illegitimate, unjustifiable and counter-productive.

The blockade and other attempts to undermine the Cuban Revolution must be condemned without ambiguity by all in accordance with international law, and considering their serious humanitarian implications. Further destabilisation in the region may also arise, as well as authoritarian reactions from Cuba and other countries that are affected by these actions, and this too must be a matter of great concern. The history of attempts by the US to force change in Cuba by coercion have shown time and again that they have failed in their goal of bringing about democratisation, but have rather strengthened the apparatus of the political and individuals who have been at the helm of the Revolution, and in many cases in other countries in the Americas, where authoritarian rulers have profited from the intervention of foreign powers to maintain their power.

The reasons for Washington’s latest decision to try to achieve regime change in Cuba are not new, nor are they in any way ideological or driven by concerns for the welfare of the Cuban people. Rather, they are the same reasons that have been at the heart of US policy towards Cuba for decades. The US claims to have an interest in democracy in Cuba. Still, the Castro regime’s increasing relations with Russia and China, as well as its general refusal to go along with Washington’s plans for the world and for the Americas, are far more significant than any fictional ‘interest’ in democracy in Cuba. And, of course, the Castro regime also resists US ambitions to become the dominant power in the world. The fact that the regime is an island nation, just 90 miles from the US, does not make the US more tolerant of Castro and his allies. The policy towards Cuba is very heavily driven by domestic politics, especially in the key battleground state of Florida, which is why Cuba is more of a stage for American domestic politics than anything to do with a genuine foreign policy or any serious attempt to engage with the people of Cuba. There is no interest whatsoever in regime change in Cuba for the benefit of the Cuban people.

The methods Washington has chosen in its policy towards Iran, sanctions, economic pressure, propaganda and secret aid to the political opposition have not succeeded. In place of sanctions, the US advocates “collective punishment”  in this case, penalties that lead to food shortages, shortages of medicines and access to the banking system. Washington uses the resulting crises to show that the Islamic Republic is incompetent. The sanctions cycle and accompanying crises create an atmosphere of confusion and ambiguity that obscures the fact that US policy is a major, often the primary factor in the crises it seeks to exploit. The propaganda war and the secret measures designed to weaken the regime have only led to an overreaction from the authorities and to the opposition’s increasing fragmentation. As a result, the space for peaceful political reform has shrunk. The policy of coercion used by the US government does not have anything to do with democracy, and the authoritarianism and increased fear that it has so far triggered in Iran are not conducive to freedom.

Cuba’s internal affairs suggest that any attempt by foreign interests to try to change the current political regime is unlikely to succeed. The military and the state security apparatus remain intact and hold a significant amount of sway among the population. While the recent unrest is an outgrowth of popular discontent, it does not appear that a viable movement for peaceful regime change has yet to emerge. An attempt by foreign powers to impose regime change could end up dividing the population, possibly prompting the authorities to adopt more extreme measures in response. It could also isolate any potential domestic figures looking to negotiate an orderly transfer of power. China and Russia, which are likely to maintain close ties with Havana, will help neutralise the impact of US sanctions, which, as we know from experience, have little real effect on the island. An attempt by Washington to try to use sanctions to bring down the Cuban regime is likely to turn the island into a focal point for the Cold War between the United States and the rest of the world, with ordinary citizens from around the globe who wish to visit and work there caught in the crossfire.

The consequences of Washington’s interference in the world also generate instability. Latin America has a very long and very painful memory of the various US interventions, and the attempt to carry out a new coup d’etat in Cuba will be to the detriment of the region’s institutions, governments and forms of multilateral cooperation. A new instability in the island will have consequences of incalculable gravity for the people of Florida, for the people of the Americas and for the world: a migration crisis of unmanageable dimensions, a terrible humanitarian crisis and the break-up of the island into various factions, which are not in the interests of anyone. The interference that seeks to impose stability through coercion and interference always ends up generating instability.

Cuba has a crisis on two fronts. The island must face the demands for change, and the United States must end its policy of trying to impose change on Cuba by forcing change on the Americans. The best way to deal with this crisis is through diplomacy and engagement, not regime change. Removing the embargo that has been in place for decades and has harmed all Cuban citizens is a first step in a long process of democratic change. Any real changes to the political systems on the island will only begin after the embargo is lifted and Cuba is allowed to fully participate in the economies of Latin America and the world, so that the island is not overly dependent on any one economy, whether that of Venezuela or anyone else. The best way to negotiate a solution to the problems between the two countries that must live with each other, including the flow of migrants, security concerns, and the economic development of the island, is through formal diplomatic relations between the US and Cuba based on mutual respect for the sovereignty of both nations.

To try again to achieve regime change in Cuba by employing the failed strategy of regime change, an outdated and discredited agenda that is incompatible with promoting democratic values, is not a good idea. It is also important to denounce interventionism in every one of its manifestations, because it violates the norms of international law, and hurts our region and the people of Cuba. In Cuba, freedom and democracy will be the result of an internal dialogue that leads to greater economic efficiency, as well as more connection with the world, and it can in no way be imposed through coercion, sanctions or subversion to dismantle the revolutionary government. The United States needs to liberate itself from that romanticism that seeks to dominate and impose the way in which other nations decide their destiny. We must strive for a region of mutual respect and solidarity.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

Naranjo Cáceres, J. Z. (2026). Economic warfare in the Caribbean: Cuba’s fuel crisis and the unravelling rules-based order. Australian Institute of International Affairs. 

Long, G., & Main, A. (2026). Sanctions could push Cuba toward humanitarian collapse. Centre for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).

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