As Iran insists on the opening of its ports closed by the United State’s blockade of the Straits of Hormutz aimed at pressuring it to accept a peace agreement based on American terms, there is a rising concern among stakeholders and players around the world of the damaging impact of the Iran war on the world economy. 

Elevated oil and energy prices, the disruption of supply chains and ensuing ripple and structural economic shocks is creating a risk of global “stagflation” which the United Nations warns could push over 30 million people into poverty, with poor countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, facing the brunt of soaring food and fuel costs. 

ASEAN Countries Impacted

The ASEAN region, one of the world’s more developed regions, has not been immune. 

The Philippines has come off worst as the country is reliant for 98 per cent of oil imports from the Gulf. With reserves estimated at 45 days, it was the first country in the world to declare a national emergency on March 24. Almost all the nation’s transport and manufacturing is dependent on imported oil. More worrying is that 2.5 million Filipinos work in the Gulf region and their earnings of US $15 billion support millions of households back home.   

Vietnam has been similarly hard hit though without the external remittance concern. With the lowest reserves of 20 days in the region, it has reported severe impact on its transport, logistic and industrial sectors and suspended fuel exports. The energy shock is pushing inflation to rise from 2.5% to 4%, and above 5 in a protracted conflict.

Thailand’s hopes of an economic turnaround with the recent election of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakil’s government have taken a big hit. With........

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