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Earlier this year, the Agri-Food Analytics Lab forecast that Canada could lose approximately 4,000 restaurants on a net basis in 2026. The prediction attracted considerable attention because it captured the financial anxiety spreading across the industry.

CHARLEBOIS: Canada is still losing restaurants — not as fast as we predicted Back to video

At mid-year, however, the evidence suggests that the forecast was likely too pessimistic.

One private location tracker identified 579 Canadian restaurant closures during the first six months of 2026. The number is incomplete and cannot be converted into a net figure because comparable Canadian opening data are unavailable. Nevertheless, the anticipated collapse has not yet become visible on the scale originally expected.

So the good news, based on what we know today, Canada is unlikely to record 4,000 net restaurant closures this year.

That does not mean the industry is healthy. Restaurants Canada reports that 41% of operators are losing money or merely breaking even, up from 36% in March. Almost two-thirds say their profitability is lower than last year. Accommodation and food-service insolvencies reached 360 during the first half of 2026, approximately 7.5% more than during the same period last year. Second-quarter filings alone increased by almost 19%.

Restaurants face high rent, labour costs

The crisis is real, but it is highly uneven.

Restaurants in Toronto and Vancouver face punishing........

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