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Bell: Nenshi beats Danielle Smith, becomes premier in Liberal MP's poll rollout

Calgary Liberal MP Corey Hogan points to a poll that makes Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi happy

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Premier Naheed Nenshi.

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Nenshi, the new premier of Alberta, if there was an election this day.

On Monday afternoon, Corey Hogan, Calgary’s only Liberal member of parliament, takes to social media.

Hogan has a nose count he wants to share with Albertans.

It is from the polling firm Pollara.

In the poll, Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP sits at 49 points with Nenshi’s NDP at 42 points.

According to Pollara’s math, Smith’s UCP are way ahead of the NDP outside the two big cities but trail Nenshi’s NDP in Calgary by a little and in Edmonton by a lot.

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Hogan says the NDP’s numbers in Calgary are better than that party’s result in the city in the last Alberta election.

The Liberal MP believes, if there is no playing fast and loose drawing the boundaries of the ridings up for grabs in the next Alberta election, there is only one conclusion.

The Alberta NDP would become the government. Nenshi wins, Smith loses.

Hogan isn’t quite done.

He says Smith “accommodating separatists” is hurting the UCP badly in the big cities.

The Liberal MP says the issue comes up all the time when he knocks on people’s doors.

In his inner-city Calgary riding — think liberal Hillhurst, think even more liberal Sunnyside —  I don’t doubt it, but I’d like to hear the results from his door-knocking in other parts of Calgary.

Corey, you’ve got my number.

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For the record, Hogan was a bigshot in the Alberta government when Rachel Notley of the NDP was running the show in this province and he stayed on for some time after Jason Kenney of the UCP defeated Notley and became premier.

Hogan was elected a Liberal MP in Calgary in the recent Elbows Up election.

Andrew Enns is from the well-known polling firm Leger.

Enns says Smith and the UCP do not look to be losing any ground in Calgary. Smith is also killing it in the countryside by anyone’s measure.

In Edmonton, they see the race between Smith’s UCP and Nenshi’s NDP as much tighter than Pollara and, since Smith’s UCP holds zero legislature seats in the capital city, the only way the governing party can go is up.

Enns of the Leger firm also points out the leadership equation.

In their leadership arithmetic, Smith’s approval has stabilized and is going up. Nenshi’s approval ratings are going down by quite a bit.

Also, in their polling, the election of Avi Lewis as federal NDP leader does considerably more harm than good to the Alberta NDP.

Lewis, who wants to stop any expanding of oil and gas production, says he wants Nenshi to be the next premier of Alberta because they are both New Democrats in spirit, in soul and in fundamental values.

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No doubt there are those in the Alberta NDP who want Lewis to shut the hell up.

Anyway, the Leger poll has the Smith UCP up a whopping 17 points on the NDP and leading everywhere in Alberta.

According to Leger, the UCP continues to widen its lead over the NDP.

On Monday, the politicians were back to their jousting in the legislature up in Edmonton.

It was clear which poll Nenshi and the NDP favour.

After all, they are sticking to their game plan.

Nenshi once again goes after Smith on Alberta separatism.

The NDP leader wants Smith to say the Alberta independence referendum is unconstitutional.

Nenshi accuses the UCP of being a separatist party “acting in concert with the separatist movement.”

Smith fires back once again, saying she is in favour of a sovereign Alberta within Canada and says Nenshi can’t even call federal NDP Leader Avi Lewis “to tell him to back off Alberta.”

Loud cheers from the UCP benches.

Now remember the Pollara poll Liberal MP Corey Hogan rolled out and what he said about it.

Hogan feels as long as there isn’t any government fiddling with the boundaries of the legislature seats before the next election, the poll numbers he points to would mean an NDP win in the election.

Nenshi talks about the Smith government meddling and being up to no good, a charge the premier denies repeatedly.

“Is her party so scared they’ll lose the next election they feel they need to rig it?” asks Nenshi.

Of course, as we’re told countless times by countless politicians, the only poll that really counts is the one on election day.

Here we have two nose counts taking a political snapshot in time.

Which picture do you think is closest to the real world?

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