*Originally published in 2025 and preserved as part of our archive project.Get E-International Relations delivered to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work.

The first face-to-face peace talks between Ukraine and Russia since March 2022 took place in mid-May 2025 in Turkey. Russian President declined to attend, sending a mid-level delegation. The sides agreed to prisoner swap but failed to reach an agreement on ceasefire. A day after the meeting, Russia unleashed the largest drone attack on Ukraine since the start of the war. President Zelensky concluded that “Russia does not want to end this war.” Most observers would agree. How can world leaders bring an end to this war? As former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink says, history has some useful lessons.

There is a historical pattern with many wars whereby, after an initial period of rapid advances and retreats, they settle into a prolonged stalemate. The war continues for years before coming to a semi-conclusion where the fighting stops based on where the frontlines were when the stalemate set in. An outside observer would be struck by the waste – why does the war continue for years with more young lives lost when the two sides just end up exactly where they were at the start? Would it not be rational for both sides to come to an agreement to settle the war much earlier? This appears to be the case now in Ukraine, and many outside observers are asking precisely this question. The answer which many reach is that it is Ukraine’s futile insistence on regaining its lost territory which is prolonging the war. Elon Musk, for instance, tweeted that President Volodymyr Zelensky wants a ‘forever war, a never ending draft meat grinder’ and has slammed US military aid to Ukraine. The facts of the case and the political science and history of war termination, however, show that Musk is wrong – support for Ukraine does not prolong the war, but rather is the best way to bring it to an end.

The literature on war termination identifies three key reasons why wars ‘drag on’ – incomplete information, commitment problems, and the shadow of future interactions. The incomplete information theory of war termination builds on an influential theory of why wars begin. According to this view, if all the protagonists to a war........

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