AS there is no realistic scenario in which the Houthis would enforce a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, and then launch attacks on its facilities without the approval — or on the instructions — of Tehran, we need to ask why a besieged Iran has taken the risk of provoking Saudi Arabia, which has thus far avoided direct participation in the war despite massive pressure from the US. Saudi Arabia’s chequered and violent history with Yemen and its armed factions notwithstanding, this blockade is a tool used by Iran to swing outcomes in its favour.

The strategy is simple: Iran wants the clock to run down on global oil supplies while ensuring that the world feels the pain as prices rise. Saudi Arabia is not only the world’s largest crude oil producer but also the one country with enough spare capacity to stabilise energy markets. By attacking Saudi tankers trying to transit Bab-El-Mandeb, the Houthis force them to take the circuitous route through the Suez to Asian markets, easily doubling the fuel cost.

Thus far two tankers — one bound for India, the other for China — have been forced to turn back but two Chinese supertankers were allowed to pass, showing that the blockade is selective. The threat to Saudi Arabia has rung alarm bells in........

© Dawn