President Donald Trump has famously and repeatedly asked his followers to “pretend I’m on the ballot” this year in an effort to boost base turnout, especially in the red states where Republicans are struggling to mitigate midterm losses. He knows, of course, that his name will never actually be on a ballot again. But some other Republican’s name will head up the GOP ticket in 2028, and that election cycle will begin on November 4 no matter what happens on November 3. Up until now, the betting favorite for the GOP nomination has been Trump’s protégé, Vice-President J.D. Vance. But the brouhaha in Vance’s home state of Ohio over Vivek Ramaswamy’s nasty ad using Amy Acton’s disreputable mom to smear her makes you wonder: Is J.D. Vance on the ballot this year — and could failure keep him off the ballot two years from now?

As Trump’s sidekick, chief surrogate, and designated attack dog, Vance has been on the midterm campaign trail quite a bit but has drawn mixed reviews. He’s been fine dishing red meat to friendly crowds, but he has seemed to struggle to connect with non-MAGA voters.

While in attack-dog mode last week in Ohio, Vance may have gone too far when the Ramaswamy ad featuring Donna Arthur’s smears first came to light. Outgoing Republican governor Mike DeWine denounced the ad immediately, telling reporters that it was “wrong” and “deeply, deeply troubling.” Even Ramaswamy’s senatorial ticket mate (and Vance’s successor), Jon Husted, blurted out that “I would have not run” the ad. But Vance didn’t hesitate. By not only defending his friend’s bottom-feeding gambit, but attacking other Republicans who have questioned it as “whiners” who don’t get that “politics is a tough business,” the veep may have raised the stakes for the outcome in Ohio and risked his own ascendancy to the leadership of........

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