Photograph Source: Simon Dawson/10 Downing Street – OGL

‘When do you think Starmer goes?’ asked a friend last week, irate about the high arrest rate among non-UK nationals. In a Focaldata poll, at the same time, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage had just overtaken Keir Starmer on who would make a better prime minister. I may have wanted to challenge my friend’s despair, but both wondered whether Starmer was holding back on something—some final card. Also, there were whispers of Labour MPs plotting to oust him after the forthcoming Budget.

The UK is restless and anxious. The prime minister is uninspiring. According to YouGov, only one in four Brits now view Starmer favourably. It is a powerful sea change. Look beyond the energised Green Party—which has edged ahead of Labour in one polling series—and note the unhappy space in which the Conservatives and Reform UK now battle. It’s all about immigration first, the economy and housing second.

That said, only 24% think Reform UK would actually do a good job in running the country—also according to YouGov. “To see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle,” wrote George Orwell. Meanwhile, a recent Electoral Calculus model (MRP, June 2025) estimates the Conservatives at 19% of the national vote.

People are still perplexed by how the UK went from a natural liberal mindset to one of xenophobia, paranoia, and lovelessness. The grey drizzle........

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