CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

Trump’s Iran War US Oil Shortage Deception

Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair

Last June 17, 2026 Trump announced the US and Iran had agreed to a Memorandum of Agreement (MOU) and a ceasefire in the war. The global price of crude oil fell almost immediately—from the $100 per barrel range at which it hovered throughout April and May to $67 for West Texas Crude (WTI) and $70 for Brent crude.

The retail price of gasoline in the US—which had surged from $2.92/gallon nationwide for regular grade gas before the war to the $4.50/gallon range at its peak—cost the American consumer $69 billion in additional out of pocket expense for the four months, March through June.

The MOU did not last long. Within days it began collapsing and in early July both sides declared it was dead. Military attacks by both sides thereafter re-commenced and have escalated steadily ever since. So too has the price of gas at the pump again, as crude oil now exceeds $90/barrel and rising.

As the media story goes in the New York Times and Washington Post legacy media in America, Trump responded and agreed to an MOU as result of the pressure from US oil company CEOs who, in early June 2026, went public and warned Trump US oil stockpiles and reserves were running critically low and would disappear in another 3-4 weeks. That would send the spot price of crude well above $150/barrel and gas at the pump to $8/gallon or more! So Trump proposed the MOU to Iran mid-June. The tentative deal on June 17 immediately drove the price of crude down to $67/barrel and shaved 50 cents or more a gallon off the price of gasoline at the pump.

But is this narrative correct?

Was the Iran war really leading to US oil reserves collapsing, causing a severe shortage that was about to drive retail gasoline prices through the roof? Or was the MOU a deception and a tactic to set up a larger military conflict with Iran that is now unfolding?

Let’s look at some facts of the past five months about US crude oil stockpile reserves, US crude production, US crude oil exports and imports, as well as US refinery capacity and gasoline and distillate fuel inventories since February 28, 2026.

Official Data on Oil Reserves, Production & Exports

According to the sources US Energy Information Administration and the private economic research firm, tradingeconomics.com, US commercial oil stock reserves on February 27, 2026 amounted to 439 million barrels. In the first six weeks of military conflict from that date through April 17, US commercial stockpiles of crude rose to 465 million barrels. Thereafter a mild drawdown occurred and by July 17, 2026 the commercial reserves were still 411 million barrels. That latter number represented a mere 6% below the preceding five year average of commercial reserves. Hardly seems like a major commercial stockpile shortage. Or, for that matter, a shortage justifying a $1.50/gallon rise in the price at the pump and $69 billion cost to consumers!

1. Maybe the commercial reserves were not at crisis levels but the Trump administration’s authorization of a release from the US Strategic Petroleum (SPR) reserve reflected a........

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