CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

Why the $40 Trillion Debt isn’t the Real Threat

Photo by Alice Pasqual

The $40 trillion debt point naturally prompted much griping among pundits, many of whom see their job as promoting hysteria in order to justify cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and other popular social programs. As is clear to anyone not on the payroll of the rich and very rich, the debt is overwhelmingly the result of tax cuts, mostly to high earners, put in place by Presidents Reagan, Bush II, and Trump.

Unfortunately, confusion on the debt can spread even among the sane. Paul Krugman and Jared Bernstein, two top-notch economists (also friends) had a discussion of the debt in a podcast posted on Saturday. At one point, they noted that interest rates have risen, creating a situation where the interest rate is higher than the rate of growth, which could lead to explosive debt growing ever larger as a share of GDP.

That’s all straightforward arithmetic, but the confusion stems from the reason they see interest rates as going higher. Part of the reason is Trump’s craziness, which we all recognize undermines confidence in the economy and the debt. However, part of the reason is the investment boom from building AI data centers.

While I agree that this is a big factor in pushing rates higher, the assumption motivating this investment is that there will be some massive payoff in the form of higher profits stemming from huge gains in productivity. If these gains in productivity materialize, then we will be far richer than current projections show, and growth will have far surpassed interest rates. In other words, no explosive debt problem. Also, if we grow an extra 10-20 percentage points over the next decade, it seems a bit silly to be whining about debt, a point I will come back to.

There is also the possibility (likelihood in my view) that the productivity gains do not materialize. In that scenario,........

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