Last Saturday's Western Australian byelection in the state seat of Secret Bay was worse than diabolical for Labor.

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A couple of weeks ago I wrote that Labor's rating in opinion polls at 28 per cent made its position diabolical. But now we see that in a real vote in a real seat that Labor's position is even worse.

On Saturday, it got just 24.5 per cent of the vote and turned a safe seat with an 11 per cent margin into a 43-57 loss.

Yes it was a byelection. Yes it was a state seat, but ...

One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen's assertion that no Labor seat is safe, portends. Worse for Labor, Labor does not seem to recognise what a dangerous position it is in, at least until now.

It seems to assume that its massive House of Representatives majority will be big enough to withstand any swing to One Nation or the Coalition.

Forget the polling, we now have two real elections (Farrer and Secret Bay) in which One Nation has topped the primary vote and then won on preferences. More significantly, one of the seats was a Coalition one and the other was Labor. One Nation is taking from both sides. Moreover, in both seats, One Nation got around 50 per cent of the preference flow.

And given the Coalition gave One Nation preference over Labor on its how-to-vote cards in both byelections, we can conclude definitively, that the Coalition has unadvisedly given these two seats to One Nation over Labor and an independent respectively.

Preferences are critical. Last election, around 90 per cent of the seats went to preferences. With preference flows running 50 per cent its way, it means that whenever One Nation gets the most primary vote, it would win the seat.

These two byelections now clearly indicate that One Nation, not the Coalition, is the de-facto opposition.

The contest now is between Labor, Greens and teals on one side and One Nation, the Liberals, and the Nationals on the other. But the objective remains the same. You still need a majority on the floor of the House of Representatives to win government, whether that majority is made up........

© Canberra Times