Although September’s economic activity figures have yet to be released, August’s data suggest that Argentina is on track to enter a technical recession in the third quarter of the year.

The latest figures reflect weak economic activity, as measured by the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE), an early indicator of quarterly GDP published by the national statistics agency INDEC.

In July, the EMAE plunged nearly 3% month-on-month, marking the steepest decline since the pandemic and the first drop of that magnitude in at least two decades that was not triggered by a peso devaluation or an international crisis.

In August, economists broadly expected economic activity to rebound. Although the recovery was not expected to fully offset the previous month’s losses, it was forecast to make up for a substantial portion of the decline.

The EMAE figures released on Wednesday dashed those expectations: economic activity edged up just 0.1% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis and fell 1.7% year-on-year. Activity in the January-August, however, remained 1.2% higher than in the same period last year.

Five of the sectors tracked by the EMAE grow in August compared with the same month in 2025. Mining........

© Buenos Aires Herald