President Donald Trump’s sudden turn toward declaring near-victory in the war on Iran shows he has at least one eye on the blowback from his Liberation Day debacle almost a year ago. A shocking and ill-considered action? Check. Disruption of trade? Check. Inflationary consequences? Check. A sharp spike in financial volatility and widespread market disruption? Check. The key difference is that backing out of a trade war is significantly simpler than retreating from a real one.

Last April, when Trump’s hyper-aggressive global tariffs triggered a meltdown in stocks and bonds, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and business leaders including Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., intervened to convince the president to scrap most of those taxes within a few days. Extricating the US from a Middle Eastern war with obscure aims against a complex, stubborn opponent won’t be nearly so easy. Aside from the lives on the line and the potential for wider economic woes, the rapid spread of chaos across markets is one more reason why Trump’s adventurism looks misguided.

© Bloomberg