The oil market is pushing its luck. For two years, it’s weathered unthinkable events, including volleys of direct attacks and counterattacks between Israel and Iran. Yet not a single barrel of production has been lost. With hindsight, every oil-price rally has proven to be an opportunity to sell. It required nerves of steel, but shorting crude while bombs and the missiles were flying was the winning trade.

The situation appears the same today after Israel launched a wide-scale attack against Iran, including its nuclear facilities, and Tehran warned of a “harsh” retaliation. Amid the chaos, the barrels are still flowing. Everywhere in the Middle East, oilfields were buzzing and tankers were loading on Friday. If anything, there’s still too much oil in the physical........

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