The killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, widely known as “El Mencho,” was celebrated in both Mexico and the United States as a decisive blow against organized crime. Political leaders, including Donald Trump, framed the operation as a major victory in the long-running war on drugs. Yet beneath the rhetoric lies a stubborn and uncomfortable reality: removing cartel leaders rarely dismantles criminal networks. Instead, it often fragments them, intensifies violence, and leaves drug supply chains largely intact.

This contradiction sits at the heart of what analysts call the “kingpin fallacy” – the mistaken belief that criminal organizations function like rigid hierarchies, where eliminating the leader causes the entire structure to collapse. In practice, modern cartels operate less like pyramids and more like decentralized networks. When one node is removed, the system adapts, reconfigures, and often becomes more volatile.

The kingpin strategy emerged prominently in the late 20th century, particularly during efforts to dismantle Colombian cartels. The logic was straightforward: target high-value individuals, disrupt command structures, and trigger organizational collapse. The death of Pablo Escobar in 1993 was seen as proof of concept.

However, history tells a different story. While Escobar’s fall weakened the Medellín Cartel, it did not eliminate drug trafficking. Instead, it paved the way for other groups, such as the Cali Cartel, and later more decentralized criminal networks. Cocaine production not only continued but expanded dramatically in the decades that followed.

This pattern has repeated itself in Mexico since the government intensified its anti-cartel campaign in 2006. High-profile arrests and killings have removed dozens of cartel leaders, yet drug flows into the United States have remained stable. Prices and purity levels of narcotics such as cocaine and methamphetamine have shown little long-term disruption, indicating resilient supply chains.

Researchers often describe the unintended consequences of the kingpin strategy as the “hydra effect,” referencing the mythological creature that grows two heads for every one cut off. When a cartel leader is removed, internal power struggles erupt. Rival factions compete for control, alliances collapse, and new groups emerge.

The death of El Mencho is likely to follow this pattern. As the leader of the powerful Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel........

© Blitz