The South Caucasus is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation. Following the Second Garabaghh War, a new regional reality has emerged in which old political formulas no longer function. One of the central questions remains the future of Armenia - a state that throughout much of its modern history has struggled to build a fully independent strategic course.

Today, Yerevan once again appears to be repeating a familiar historical pattern: the search for an external "elder brother" capable of guaranteeing security, political backing, and international lobbying. This tendency has created a pattern of dependency that continues to shape Yerevan’s political behavior. For centuries, Armenia’s survival was tied to the patronage of larger states - from imperial Russia to the Soviet Union, and later, to post-Soviet Moscow.

Following the collapse of the USSR, Armenia became one of Russia’s firmest allies in the South Caucasus. The Russian military base in Gyumri and Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) served as tangible symbols of this alliance.

However, the war in Ukraine and Russia’s weakened regional position pushed Armenian elites to search for a new geopolitical sponsor. France rapidly moved to fill that vacuum.

Paris has recently intensified its engagement with Armenia. French politicians have adopted increasingly critical rhetoric toward Azerbaijan, championed humanitarian and political initiatives supportive of Yerevan, and facilitated military cooperation. These actions are often framed as support for democracy and stability, but the underlying........

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