Donald Trump’s current visit to China doesn't seem to be simply another high-profile summit between two rival powers, after all, what the US military forces experienced in the Gulf. It is also a tacit acknowledgement that Washington’s recent geopolitical calculations, particularly in the Middle East, have not unfolded as expected. What was initially presented as a strategy of maximum pressure against Iran has instead exposed the limits of American coercive power in an increasingly fragmented international order.

Trump entered his second presidency believing Iran would prove an easy adversary to intimidate. His administration assumed that economic pressure, military signalling, and regional isolation would force Tehran into submission or at least compel it to accept American terms. However, Iran did not collapse under pressure. Instead, it adapted, absorbed the blows, and continued projecting influence through asymmetric networks across the region.

The Gulf operations designed to weaken Iran politically and strategically failed to produce decisive results. Rather than demonstrating overwhelming American dominance, they revealed the risks of escalation in a region where energy security, maritime trade routes, and proxy conflicts are deeply interconnected. The White House discovered that Iran was not a fragile regional actor waiting to be broken, but a hardened........

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