As the all-out war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, Russian political elites remain convinced that their leader, Vladimir Putin, did not make a grave error by launching it in February 2022. Instead, they are looking back with a sense of achievement, and they have good reason to believe that the war is ending on their terms, perhaps even soon.

A striking feature of this conflict is the discrepancy between Russia’s real expectations of it and how these are interpreted by the Western media and expert community. The latter tend to describe Russia’s motives as a manifestation of its allegedly inherent imperialism and an ambition to re-establish control over half of Europe, as in Soviet times.

The true Russian motives are far more ad hoc and pragmatic. In general terms, they boil down to drawing a very firm red line against NATO’s expansion towards Russia’s borders, which, instead of envisaging the eventual integration of Russia itself, was clearly aimed at Russia’s isolation and containment.

A separate but significant factor is that the more belligerent and security-obsessed elements within Putin’s regime have always benefitted from the West’s open hostility towards Russia. The close symbiosis between these security elites and hawkish Western lobbyists who service the military-industrial complex is a lucrative joint venture that rewards both parties with money and power. In Russia’s case, the all-out conflict in Ukraine – which most Russians see as a proxy war with NATO – allowed securocratic elites to eliminate the pro-Western liberal opposition that threatened their political hegemony.

But there was also more ad hoc logic to Putin’s decision stemming from the events of 2019-2021 when the newly elected Ukrainian President........

© Al Jazeera