The second phase of the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections concluded on April 29 amid unprecedented intensity. Record voter turnout, reaching nearly 92 per cent in the first phase and similarly high in the second, marked one of the most fiercely contested polls in recent Indian history. This battle pits Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led nationally by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. For Banerjee, it is a fight for survival and a potential fourth term as Chief Minister. For the BJP, it represents a high-stakes push to dislodge the TMC in a state lacking a dominant local face, relying instead on Modi’s charisma and Shah’s strategy. 

The election transcends routine politics, involving legal skirmishes over voter lists, administrative deployments by the Election Commission, psychological narratives of development versus victimhood, and on-ground mobilisation. Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls removed around 91 lakh names, shrinking the electorate by about 12 per cent from earlier figures. This process, combined with massive central force deployment, fueled accusations of targeting and counter-claims of cleaning bogus entries. 

Whatever the outcome on May 4, this verdict will reshape West Bengal’s political landscape permanently, altering alliances, minority strategies, and the balance between welfare populism and majoritarian appeals. Four key factors will likely decide the result.

ALSO READ: OPINION | West Bengal Assembly Polls 2026: Election That Could Reshape Mamata Banerjee’s Politics

Muslim Voting Patterns

Muslims constitute roughly 27-33 per cent of West Bengal’s population, exerting decisive influence in 100-110 assembly seats,........

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