Changing ground realities, identity politics fatigue, and governance aspirations may reshape Muslim voting patterns. As Mamata Banerjee heads into the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections, the political landscape she once dominated with confidence appears far less predictable. 

For over a decade, her party, the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), has relied on a consolidated minority vote bank, particularly among Muslims, who make up nearly 27% of the state’s population. In 2021, despite visible attempts at division, this bloc largely stayed intact, ensuring her sweeping victory against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

However, 2026 is not 2021. A mix of structural, political, and psychological shifts suggests that the Muslim vote in Bengal may no longer be as unified or predictable as before.

Fragmentation Factors: SIR and New Alliances

One major development is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. Though........

© ABP Live