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John Black

John Black

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Higher CGT will increase school fees, could help One Nation win seats

Higher CGT will increase school fees, could help One Nation win seats

The contest for the hearts and minds of a new Howard battler generation could be fought in the schools hardest hit by the government’s tax changes.

yesterday 10

Financial Review

John Black

Pauline for prime minister? That’s where the preference deals lead

On the latest Redbridge poll, the Coalition parties would lose every electorate they now hold. Their preferences could put Pauline Hanson in the top...

01.06.2026 20

Financial Review

John Black

Labor and Nats risk being the biggest seat losers from NDIS reform

So far, the changes to the scheme have cross-party support. But how long will this display of economic virtue survive sustained pressure from vested...

29.04.2026 30

Financial Review

John Black

What One Nation’s SA vote means for the next federal election

The Coalition cannot sleepwalk its way out of its 2025 hole. In fact, things may get a lot worse for the Liberals and Nationals.

13.04.2026 30

Financial Review

John Black

One Nation ripped votes from Labor, not just Libs. The feds are next

A look at the demographic drivers of Saturday’s state election result shows it’s one that should scare both (traditional) major parties.

22.03.2026 40

Financial Review

John Black

Taylor should win Farrer because Ley was drag on Libs’ vote

The byelection is his to lose, as poll numbers tend to recover when a poor leader is replaced by an untried one. This may be temporary though if he is...

22.02.2026 20

Financial Review

John Black

Albo turned the Bondi tragedy into a political stunt

The hate speech bill’s real purpose appears to be for use as a platform for the prime minister to settle scores with the Coalition and his real...

16.01.2026 40

Financial Review

John Black

Politics in 2026 the tale of a nation divided by richer and poorer

The main source of instability next year will be the wealthy getting wealthier and the less well-off drifting to the minor parties.

28.12.2025 30

Financial Review

John Black

Demographics means private school fees are destined to rise

Next year, the world’s two population megatrends are coming to a non-government school near you. And it’s going to cost you more.

21.11.2025 30

Financial Review

John Black

What’s the betting for One Nation winning a Nats seat next election?

If the One Nation protest vote holds, Barnaby Joyce could win a NSW Senate seat. But the odds the party wins traditional electorates after that look...

23.10.2025 20

Financial Review

John Black

Why politicians are obsessing about the Indian vote

The new generation of Indo-Pacific migrants tends to be aspirational and transactional and hence more right-wing in the choices they make concerning...

08.09.2025 10

Financial Review

John Black

Labor’s intergenerational fairness could be lucky break for the Libs

The Liberal Party would presumably be delighted to defend its former voters in the richest seats from any move to ratchet up taxes.

25.08.2025 10

Financial Review

John Black

Why the Greens are in real trouble

Warning signs are flashing for a party that has lost many of its older, more affluent supporters and is struggling to attract new backers.

25.07.2025 10

Financial Review

John Black

Why Sussan Ley should say no deal to the Nats

Unless the Liberal Party regains the support of professional women, it is difficult to see how it, with or without the National Party, can form...

23.05.2025 20

Financial Review

John Black

How a likely Coalition win turned into a Labor landslide

Anthony Albanese just grew in confidence as the campaign progressed – and more voters than just the party faithful responded.

04.05.2025 30

Financial Review

John Black

How the Greens’ disastrous strategy will help Albo win

The party’s embrace of dubious housing policies, the corrupt CFMEU and “genocide” claims has alienated its base. John Black explains.

02.05.2025 20

Financial Review

John Black

Albanese’s lucky streak is getting real

The prime minister is hoping his luck holds out until May 3. He’s probably only going to get one Peter Dutton in this life.

21.04.2025 20

Financial Review

John Black