Not long before the 2019 election, in a Qantas lounge at Heathrow, I was surprised to overhear a man talking about the coming poll. He was close to the department secretary, he said, impervious to who might hear him; and the secretary was perceived as being too close to Scott Morrison. And so, it seemed, this public servant would soon lose his job.

This came back to me last week, amid speculation over whether Treasury chief Steven Kennedy would keep his job if Peter Dutton wins. It was a reminder of just how febrile the weeks before an election are. Everyone is talking; people become indiscreet; everyone around politics starts worrying about their job; the looming deadline makes people do strange things.

Illustration: Joe BenkeCredit:

In the end, of course, Morrison – and presumably that public servant – held on. Which is a reminder that the feeling inside the bubble is often no indication of what is going on outside.

But who, this time, is trapped inside the bubble? Is it Anthony Albanese, who seems almost eerily unperturbed by negative polls and the grim forecast for Labor increasingly made by commentators? Or is it the doomsayers, overly attached to drama, ignoring the still fairly close polls and the fact that first-term governments tend not to lose?

Not since 1931, anyway. To which Peter Dutton responds, in interviews, that this is the worst government since 1931. This is a striking claim to make – particularly given just how much voters hated the Morrison government at its end. Have voters really forgotten already, or is Dutton caught in his own bubble,........

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