Last week’s ‘tipping point’ might have obscured an earlier, more important moment

October 5, 2026 — 2:00am

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The government is having to walk some fine lines at the moment. Three weeks ago, announcing Labor’s migration policy, Tony Burke was keen to stress that the housing supply problem was not caused by immigration. But, he said, immigration was part of the answer.

Then last week deja vu – as Jim Chalmers, seeking to get ahead of Tuesday’s interest rate rise, leaned away from suggestions government spending was driving up inflation. At the same time, he recognised there was “more work to do” on cutting spending.

Are the two ministers contradicting themselves? No – in fact, both have legitimate cases. Burke squared his circle by arguing the major factor that changed was not immigration but the fact Australians, post-pandemic, wanted to live with fewer people. So immigration, which has recently fallen, wasn’t the cause – but cutting it could now help. Similarly, Chalmers’ argument effectively is that Labor has been cutting spending as quickly as is responsible in a changing environment. The fact more can be done doesn’t automatically mean that more should have been done already – especially given the fact nobody knew how events in Iran would play out.

You can disagree with both men on the numbers involved – there are plenty who think both migration and spending should be lower than they are – but there is nothing wrong with the fundamental logic. Still, you can see from the nuances involved how delicately balanced the current political situation is.

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