Disunity is death, but here’s why more friendly fire might help the PM

June 5, 2026 — 3:00am

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Is the Labor backbench starting to feel the heat over the 2026 budget? If it is, you’d hardly know it.

There’s no doubt that the budget has not landed as well as Labor had hoped. Senior members of the government, such as Treasurer Jim Chalmers, have repeatedly made the point that they expected to lose a bit of skin for making major changes to the tax system. Pushback was expected. Factored in. The price you pay when you undertake big reforms. But they would say that, wouldn’t they?

Day after day in question time, the opposition hammers the prime minister over two things: the broken promises and the details of the tax changes, while Labor backbenchers shift uncomfortably in their seats.

Suddenly, a raft of first-term MPs have been confronted by their own political mortality for the first time. For them, the prospect of being “oncers” is now real. Pauline Hanson has her eye on a swag of marginal seats, particularly in her home state of Queensland. On current polling, One Nation has a decent chance of winning some of those seats.

As one experienced Labor MP, who asked not to be named, explains it: “Caucus is now split into three groups. The true believers who support the [tax] changes, the people taking the ‘short-term pain, long-term gain’ view, and the people in aspirational, marginal seats that swing between Labor and Liberal each election.”

It is this third group that should concern the prime minister.

With 94 seats in........

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