An ‘October surprise’ could seal Trump’s fate, or make him great again

August 31, 2026 — 9:45am

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September is upon us. Time to anticipate this US political year’s “October surprise”. The October Surprise – a shock that could decide the election – is an active virus.

In 1980, the Ronald Reagan camp let it be known that they expected president Jimmy Carter to save his presidency by making concessions to the Iranians, who had been holding 52 Americans hostages in Tehran for nearly 400 days. But there was no way then-supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini was going to save Carter – just as Iran’s supreme leader today will not make any concessions before the midterms to give President Donald Trump an urgent political boost. Reagan romped into the White House.

But would Trump still pull an October surprise to end an unpopular war and reduce petrol prices? Republican senators are reported to be hoping that Trump may yet be tempted – declare victory and end the war. This scenario actually played out during another forever way, Vietnam. Two weeks before the 1966 midterm elections, then-senator George Aiken called for president Lyndon Johnson to declare victory in Vietnam and bring home the 500,000 troops fighting that war. Johnson never contemplated such a retreat. Johnson and the country lived with the consequences. His party lost 47 House seats and three Democratic senators. Trump has declared victory 32 times but has not ended the war.

Trump faces the same fate for........

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