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Can the Iran war even be won?

Shifting goals and asymmetric leverage make a clean victory elusive — for all countries involved.

It’s okay; you can laugh. There is indeed something farcical, albeit grim, about the purported negotiations between the US and Iran.

Yesterday, President Donald Trump claimed the two countries had made “very good” progress toward ending the war. Hours later, Iran’s foreign ministry denied that any such conversations had ever occurred. Trump then clarified that his envoys had talked to other Iranian officials but did not name any names. (The word “clarify” is admittedly doing lots of work in that sentence.)

Regardless of who is or isn’t speaking to whom, Trump does appear interested in ending the war he started — or, at least, reassuring markets to that effect. That begs the obvious follow-up question: Did Trump get what he wanted from this? Is the US, in fact, “winning” the conflict?

That’s a messy question, in any war — but especially this one. Trump has moved the goalposts so many times, it’s hard to keep track of what the score is. So, I turned to several of my colleagues who cover world news for Vox and asked them how they’re evaluating the war. Who is winning and who is losing... if anyone?

Understand the world with a daily explainer, plus the most compelling stories of the day.

Zack Beauchamp, a senior correspondent at Vox:

In tactical terms, Iran is the obvious loser of this war: Its senior leadership has been assassinated, and its military assets decimated, with minimal casualties on either the US or Israeli side so far. Under normal circumstances, this would be what total defeat looks like.But the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been extraordinarily effective in putting pressure on the United States, seemingly bringing the Trump administration to the negotiating table. If the US backs down under economic coercion, Iran will have just proven its ability to hold the global economy hostage and get away with it. That means it would end the conflict in a stronger political position than where it started, despite its overwhelming battlefield defeats — which is what victory looks like.This would represent a catastrophic failure of planning and foresight by........

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