The context you need, when you need it

When news breaks, you need to understand what actually matters — and what to do about it. At Vox, our mission to help you make sense of the world has never been more vital. But we can’t do it on our own.

We rely on readers like you to fund our journalism. Will you support our work and become a Vox Member today?

Can Trump bomb his way to regime change in Iran?

Iran has already announced new interim leadership to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed this weekend, along with several other high-ranking Iranian officials in an Israeli strike.

But who will lead the country in the long term is far from certain in the opening days of what could be a protracted war.

It’s not clear who’s running Iran now, but the regime is designed so that it can’t be easily toppled by removing the people at the top.

There is not one opposition leader or group ready to take over the country, and many opposition figures lack public legitimacy.

The hardline generals who run the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are probably in the best position to take power.

The war with Iran threatens regional stability; if the regime does collapse, Iran could turn into a failed state.

President Donald Trump’s stated objective for the attack on Iran has shifted dramatically in recent days, from the alleged threat of an imminent nuclear attack, to the regime’s support of terrorist groups, to wanting to bring “freedom” to the people of Iran.

Similarly, Trump’s desired outcome has been evolving on the fly, from full-scale regime change to merely replacing the leadership at the top (as the US recently did in Venezuela) to “peace throughout the Middle East, and indeed, the world,” as he wrote on Truth Social on Saturday.

Regime change is difficult to achieve through the kind of bombing campaign the US and Israel are currently pursuing, but Trump and the Pentagon aren’t ruling out sending in ground troops, even as polls show that the Iran incursion is broadly unpopular among Americans.

And Iran’s leadership has threatened “ferocious” retaliation as it fires ballistic missiles at Israel and at US military bases, civilian targets, and energy infrastructure in Gulf states.

To learn more about what to expect next, Today, Explained co-host Noel King spoke with Nahal Toosi, senior foreign affairs correspondent and columnist for Politico.

Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full episode, so listen to Today, Explained wherever you get podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and Spotify.

Who is in charge in Iran right now?

It’s a very good question. Technically, they’ve said that they’ve appointed an interim council to lead the country for now. It consists of the president, Masoud Pezeshkian — he’s something of a moderate in the Iranian system — and there’s a........

© Vox