On January 1, Ukraine terminated the transit of Russian gas to Europe, ending 34 years of almost uninterrupted supply since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some in the West have celebrated this as a victory over Russia.

If anything, it is a potential victory for Türkiye as the Southern Corridor – a 3,500 km-long route for transporting natural gas – rises in strategic importance to European industries rocked by high prices and low productivity.

For all practical purposes, the sale, purchase and supply of gas or any other commodity are entirely commercial matters.

However, Russian gas has long been politicised in the West, more so in the context of the crisis in Ukraine that started in 2014 and eventually led to Moscow launching what it called a “special military operation” against Kiev in 2022.

Ukraine’s recent decision to end the long-standing gas supply route to Europe seems just another minor twist in that soap opera.

In the big scheme, it won’t strike a major blow to Russia, despite Poland’s Foreign Minister declaring it a victory.

Gas, like oil, flows to where the demand is. The war in Ukraine has seen a huge increase in Russian oil supplies to India and a continued growth in Russian gas supplies to China. Meanwhile, Russia has also increased its LNG exports to Europe to replace cheaper piped gas supplies.

Numbers don’t lie. And export data shows that Russia hasn’t been weakened, although its economy has undoubtedly endured seismic shifts.

Since 2014, Russia has, on average, exported $420bn worth of goods each year, two-thirds of that oil and gas. After a hugely profitable year in 2022 when energy prices surged, Russia remained above that trend average in 2023 and looks set to repeat it when 2024 data is compiled. There’s nothing that suggests 2025 will be different, either.

Winners and losers

The two biggest losers here will be the unrecognised breakaway region of........

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