Iran’s Islamic Republic is beginning to look like a regime living on borrowed time. Six months of war have battered its military infrastructure, crippled its economy, and driven millions of ordinary Iranians deeper into poverty. The question now is whether a decisive strike against the regime’s economic lifeline could finally tip the balance and allow the Iranian people to reclaim their country. Kharg Island could provide that tipping point. U.S. President Donald Trump has already raised the prospect dramatically by posting an AI-generated video purporting to show Kharg Island being blown apart. The imagery was synthetic, and Reuters reported that there was no evidence the island had actually been attacked. Yet the message was unmistakable. Kharg is recognized as the vulnerable heart of Iran’s oil export machine. Before the war it handled around 90 percent of Iranian oil exports. Destroying or disabling that infrastructure would strike directly at the financial foundations of the Islamic Republic.

The regime has survived decades of sanctions, corruption, and economic mismanagement by relying upon oil revenues. Today, that economic lifeline is already fraying. The Iranian rial has fallen to an extraordinary 2.06 million to the U.S. dollar. Inflation has reached 89 percent year on year, while food inflation has exceeded 127 percent. Salaries have been devastated. One Tehran technology worker told Al Jazeera that his monthly salary, once worth more than $1,000, has fallen below $500. This is economic warfare against an exhausted population.

Iran is one of the world’s great resource rich countries. Yet its people face fuel and electricity shortages. Gas shortages threaten the coming winter. Petrol prices are set to rise. Oil, gas,........

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