Happy birthday, America! This week we will celebrate the 250th anniversary of our Declaration of Independence. Washington, DC, is draped in red, white, and blue. There are birthday celebrations across the country and many places in the rest of the world. In Bangkok, the Thai government is wishing us happy birthday on trains, boats, and tuk-tuks!

But for us "based" individuals, the number 250 is a grim portent. For the last several years, conservatives have circulated an essay by the British knight John Glubb called "Fate of Empires." Originally written in 1976, Fate of Empires spells out a formula that great empires last 10 generations or about 250 years.

That means we’ve hit a great milestone, but also a possible scary expiration date.

Glubb cites a variety of empires, both ancient and modern, for his formula – such as Assyria (859 to 612 BC, 247 years), Ottoman (1320 to 1570 AD, 250 years), and Spain (1500 to 1750 AD, 250 years) – though it’s only an estimate. The Roman Republic lasted 233 years (260 to 27 BC) while its successor empire lasted 207 (27 BC to 180 AD) before the beginning of its slow, inevitable decline.

What’s rock solid is Glubb’s formula for how nations decline: a dynamic pioneer period is followed by military success which leads to wealth, which leads to decadence, which leads to conquest by another power or powers. He cites easily recognized elements of decadence such as the growth of a welfare state or decline in religious participation, but there’s a lot........

© Townhall