On Wednesday, after weeks of talks mediated primarily by Pakistan, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran signed an initial agreement to end their war. The breakthrough came days after Washington and Tehran electronically signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and attempt to resolve, within 60 days, the interlocking questions of Iran’s nuclear program and American sanctions that have long strangled its economy.

In the days since, the reported contents of the agreement have drawn fire from multiple directions simultaneously. In Washington, Iran hawks have read it as a lopsided arrangement, more generous to Tehran than even the 2015 nuclear deal. In Israel, the agreement is seen across the political spectrum as a bad bargain struck by the U.S. while deliberately keeping the Israeli government outside the room and away from the text.

Inside Iran, skepticism about the agreement runs deeper than the rhetoric of the Stability Front, an ultra-hardline faction influential within parts of the state and society, and reflects a broader, pragmatic unease rooted in profound distrust of the U.S.—a feeling sharpened by the trauma of two American-Israeli wars against Iran within a year, both launched while negotiations were underway. Understanding that psychology is essential to assessing whether the current ceasefire holds, and whether this tentative opening can ever mature into a concrete and comprehensive deal.

What did Iran and America agree upon?

The agreement between the U.S. and Iran is designed to end the war and open a diplomatic process that could later produce a more substantial deal. Stopping the hostilities was easier but the diplomatic negotiations to resolve broader issues will likely prove to be harder and involve higher stakes for the future of the relationship between the two countries, matters of war and peace in the Middle East, and the stability of the global economy. 

Iran and the U.S. have agreed to end the war on all fronts—including Lebanon—immediately and permanently, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The two countries pledge to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to start a 60-day negotiation, extendable by mutual consent, to reach a final agreement.

Washington has agreed to lift its naval blockade of Iran, and Tehran has agreed to restore commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz to match the pre-war volumes. The commitments are already turning into reality: Tankers carrying Iranian crude oil have crossed the naval blockade line in the Gulf of Oman in the presence of U.S. warships, and commercial vessels have started transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, though traffic is expected to take weeks to reach pre-war levels.

American and Israeli military strikes on Iran are estimated to have destroyed and damaged more than 120,000 residential and commercial units during the 40-day war. And the war, according to estimates by the Iranian government, has caused the country losses amounting to around $270 billion. Washington has agreed to “undertake with regional partners” the creation of a reconstruction and economic development fund of at least $300 billion for Iran. President Donald Trump has insisted the American Treasury would not contribute to the fund but hopes the Gulf states would finance it, alongside the release of a portion of Iran’s frozen assets.

Sanctions relief for Iran would follow a timetable that Washington and Tehran would need to agree upon and extend to the removal of punitive measures imposed on the country by the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors. For its part, Iran has reaffirmed that it will pursue only civilian nuclear ambitions and has agreed to negotiate the future of enrichment, its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and related questions.

Trump entered this war, along with Israel, vowing to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and hinting at regime change. The U.S. and Israel have........

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