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BJP wants a Maharashtra redo in Odisha. Naveen Patnaik is the last obstacle

With the back to the wall now, Naveen Patnaik is suddenly doing what he seldom did before—coming to the Assembly daily, making interventions, giving statements to TV channels, and hitting the streets.

Former Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik may be thanking his lucky stars today. In 2018, his government secured a resolution in the state assembly to form a Legislative Council. In 2022, the then-Union Law Minister Kiren Rijiju told the Rajya Sabha that the Centre had not received the resolution. That’s the last time one heard of it. Anyway, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Biju Janata Dal often played friendly ping-pong matches until they fell apart.  

Patnaik must be relieved today that there is no Legislative Council in Odisha. Remember what happened in Maharashtra in June 2022? On 10 June, the BJP won three of the six Rajya Sabha seats, although the ruling Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was expected to get four. Several MVA MLAs cross-voted for the BJP, obviously. Ten days later, on 20 June, the BJP won five of the 10 seats in the Legislative Council polls—one more than expected, thanks to the cross-voting. 

A frustrated Prithviraj Chavan, former Maharashtra CM, said, “In the Rajya Sabha polls, the BJP (having 105 MLAs) got 123 and in this (Council polls), they got 133. This means 10 more people voted for the BJP in the past ten days.” The mystery was resolved within hours after the Council poll results, as Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde, along with 30 party MLAs, rebelled against CM Uddhav Thackeray and left Mumbai for a safe haven, Surat, that night. The rest is history, as they say.   

In Odisha Rajya Sabha polls on 16 March, BJP-backed Independent candidate Dilip Ray won. Eight MLAs from the BJD and three from the Congress cross-voted in his favour. On Saturday, BJD president Patnaik suspended six of these MLAs for anti-party activities; two others were already suspended.

Out of 50 MLAs, the BJD’s effective strength in the Assembly is 42 now— a 16 per cent reduction. That’s why Patnaik may be thanking his stars. What if there were a Legislative Council in Odisha and there were elections to fill some vacancies—like in Maharashtra? Could Patnaik afford to face another test of his MLAs’ loyalty? 

Since the setback in the 2024 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, he has seen many of his loyalists rise in rebellion. Barely three months after the setback, Mamata Mohanta resigned from the Rajya Sabha and joined the BJP. Rajya Sabha member Sujeet Kumar followed suit. Another RS member, Debasish Samantray, resigned from the post of BJD vice-president last November, although he continues in the party. 

As BJD leaders say, rats jumping out of a seemingly sinking ship or self-seeking individuals opting for greener pastures........

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