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Opinion National Interest PoV 50-Word Edit

ThePrint On Camera Videos In Pictures

Society & Culture Around Town Book Excerpts Vigyapanti The Dating Story

More Judiciary Education YourTurn Work With Us Campus Voice

India’s fuel story shouldn’t come at the cost of food security

By optimising sequencing, the 20 per cent blending target ceases to be a latent vulnerability and becomes what it was always meant to be: a sustainable advancement on both fronts.

India has recently achieved a significant milestone by reaching a 20 per cent ethanol blending target, a year ahead of schedule. This accomplishment represents a deliberate policy success, as the blending production capacity increased 18-fold over a decade, reducing crude oil imports and providing farmers with an additional revenue source.

However, this achievement is accompanied by certain implications, particularly concerning grain. The same agricultural cycle that now contributes to nearly one-fifth of India’s petrol supply has also experienced significant volatility in food prices, with an 11.5 per cent inflation spike followed by deflation within 28 months. With the potential return of El Niño in 2026, it is pertinent to consider whether India’s progress in energy security has inadvertently compromised its food security, especially at a time when such security is crucial.

28 months, 3 personalities

Food inflation in India has exhibited characteristics akin to three distinct economic phases. The first phase was marked by the 2023 El Niño shock, during which food inflation surged beyond 11 per cent in July, consistently exceeding the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 3-5 percentage points throughout the year. The second phase appeared to offer relief until October 2024, when a second spike to 10.87 per cent occurred, indicating that this was not an isolated incident but rather a recurring, climate-related pattern within India’s food economy.

The third presents an intriguing scenario: by October 2025, food inflation had decreased to -5.02 per cent, a deflationary trough that, while seemingly positive, typically indicates an overcorrected supply response. This response is characterised by farmers and traders hastily offloading stock following two years of price volatility, rather than signifying enduring stability.

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