I DO NOT mourn the killing of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Nor do I mourn the killing of his fanatical fellow clerics and zealots in Iran’s theocracy and Republican Guard leadership. What I do mourn, however, is the death of our international rules-based order as set out in our UN charters and laws of armed conflict.

The UN is far from perfect, but to plagiarise Churchill – ‘No one pretends that the UN is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that the UN is the worst form of global order, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time’.

The alternatives to our international rules-based order are chaos and the extreme violence associated with a ‘might is right’ mindset among full spectrum world ‘powers’.

What Trump and Netanyahu have just done in their air campaign against Iran is akin to a medieval king beheading the king of a rival, warring province. Unlike in previous US military interventions such as Afghanistan or Iraq, Trump made no attempt to justify his ‘Epic Fury’ operation against Iran in legal or ethical terms.

There was no consultation with the UN Security Council. There was no consultation with the United States Congress. Trump acted unilaterally, framing his assault as a ‘major combat operation’ – stopping short of calling it what it is, an act of war.

Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Putin, another ‘strong-man’ has also used terms such as ‘special military operation’ to justify his illegal and criminal acts of war against Ukraine. While I do not suggest a direct moral equivalence between the Kremlin and the White House, I am deeply concerned at the manner in which President Trump has acted outside of the great institutions and checks and balances of the United States.

As we prepare to visit the Oval Office on St. Patrick’s Day, I am fearful that we are witnessing a fundamental change in the nature of a great democracy and a great friend of the Irish people.

In truth, in executing Iran’s leadership, Trump is actually executing Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy objectives of achieving a ‘greater Israel’ by crushing Iran as a military or ideological threat and by dismantling the emerging Shia axis of power, which – until recently – stretched from Tehran, through Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut.

That is precisely why Netanyahu has invaded Lebanon, carrying out airstrikes and deploying major military forces north to the Blue Line on Israel’s border with South Lebanon.

Irish troops serving with UNIFIL will undoubtedly come under direct and indirect Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) fire in the coming days – as they have in every other previous Israeli intervention in Lebanon. My thoughts are with the men and women of Óglaigh na h’Éireann as they serve in the cause of peace – a burden they share with their families and loved ones at home in Ireland.

Tehran, Iran. 02nd Mar, 2026. This photo shows a scene following an airstrike near the Ferdowsi square in central Tehran. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

At the moment, the US/Israeli air operation is most likely transitioning into its second phase. The first phase, which began on Saturday morning’s daylight strikes, was an attempt to ‘decapitate’ the regime – using AI-enhanced target acquisition systems, perfected by the IDF in their genocidal campaign in Gaza.

In the same manner that the Israelis ‘eliminated’ the head of Hezbollah, Sheikh Nasrallah in Beirut in September 2024, the initial wave of airstrikes was designed to effect ‘regime-change’ by mass killing of Iran’s political and military leadership.

The initial phase has also consisted of a ‘SEAD’ element – Suppression of Enemy Air Defences – in order to achieve full air superiority and control of airspace in the region. The next phase – which President Trump has referred to as ‘the Big One’ – will likely consist of what is termed ‘DEAD’ or complete Destruction of Enemy Air Defences’.

In the coming days, in waves of air strikes and missile strikes, the US and Israel will seek locate, identify and destroy Iran’s entire military and uranium enrichment critical infrastructure. This will involve further attacks on command and control centres – human targets – and all ballistic missile and drone capabilities that have survived the initial phase of combat. In this process, there will be a marked increase in the risk of civilian casualties.

In this context, it will not yet be possible for civilian aircraft to operate in this chaotic airspace. The advice to Irish citizens to ‘shelter in place’ is probably the best advice for the time being. I would also add to this advice and recommend that Irish citizens avoid major commercial or symbolic landmarks, as Iran will lash out at its neighbouring Gulf States, attempting to fire as many missiles as they can before their arsenal is destroyed or neutralised.

I would also be concerned in the coming days of acts of terror perpetrated as reprisal against the current assault on Iran. The policy of assassinating senior regime figures will act as a rallying cry to the Shia cult of ‘Martyrdom’, and I would be concerned about suicidal attacks on Western targets in the region and throughout Europe and the United States. If Iran becomes involved in state-sponsored terrorism, it will make the campaigns of Sunni groups such as Al Qaeda and Islamic State look like amateur productions.

It is one thing to assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists. They are difficult to replace. However, there will be no shortage of religious zealots and hard-line extremists to replace political and military leaders. And no shortage of radicalised extremists ready to ‘Martyr’ themselves against the current ‘coalition of the willing’ in Netanyahu’s assault on Iran.

In this context, I am deeply concerned by Minister of Defence, Helen McEntee’s inability or unwillingness to describe Trump and Netanyahu’s assault on Iran as ‘illegal’. It is self-evidently illegal and an unlawful act of war, however despicable the Iranian regime is. When our Minister for Defence and Minister for Foreign Affairs appear unable to determine the legality or otherwise of the current war, involving thousands of Irish citizens trapped in the zone of conflict, one has to wonder if we can trust the Irish government to make informed, wise decisions about the deployment of Irish troops to conflict zones in the absence of the Triple Lock.

Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Minister McEntee recently confirmed that when Ireland’s Triple Lock is abolished, there will be no Free Vote, as suggested by me in the Defence and National Security Committee – no vote of conscience on where Ireland sends our young men and women to current and future conflicts. The current actions of Trump and Netanyahu – acting like medieval warlords, with no reference to international law or the United Nations – will embolden others such as Putin and Xi Jinping to engage in unilateral and criminal acts of aggression against the Baltic States in Europe or Taiwan in Asia.

This current war threatens regional and global stability. It represents a political, human and environmental catastrophe and undermines the West’s supposed moral authority in world affairs. This is precisely the right time – a critical moment in human history – to reinvigorate and resuscitate the UN through reform and transformation This is precisely the wrong time for the Irish government to walk back from the multilateral principles of the UN and to abolish our Triple Lock.

Shiite Muslim women and pro-Khamenei supporters take part in the demonstration against the US. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

The Irish people decided by sovereign decisions of the Oireachtas and by Solemn Declarations given to the Irish people by the EU to be bound by the multilateral principle of UN Security Council sanctions for the deployment of our young men and women to current and future conflict zones. The members of the UN Security Council do not decide – nor do they care – where Ireland deploys our troops.

The Triple Lock is a safeguard on future military interventions that is the sovereign and solemn wish of the vast majority of the Irish people. In seeking to remove it, the Irish government is setting its face against the will of the Irish people. The current war on Iran is a clear and present warning to the Irish people of the future of ‘international coalitions of the willing’ and peace ‘enforcement’ missions.

In truth, there will be no more ‘peacekeeping’ missions in our lifetime in a time of geopolitical turbulence and flux. In the absence of the Triple Lock, any future government will be empowered to send any number of Irish troops to any future conflict by simple – whipped – government majority.

We are being asked as a nation to trust a community of decision makers in Ireland who have left our Defence Forces on their knees and whose decisions have rendered Ireland completely defenceless in our maritime, cyber, air and ground domains.

In a time of increasing conflict and war, Ireland needs to have its military neutrality guaranteed in our constitution by way of a referendum.

Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer and former lecturer at TU Dublin. He is an Independent senator.

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