RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR Putin’s ‘three-day special military operation’ in Ukraine is approaching its four year anniversary in February.

There have been more than 1,400 days of grinding attritional combat. 2025 has seen a major shift in Putin’s propaganda efforts to portray Ukraine’s defence as ‘crumbling’ with Russian victory in Luhansk and Donetsk as ‘inevitable’.

It is certainly the case that Russian forces have made a number of minor advances along the 1,000km front. The centre of gravity of the Kremlin’s winter campaign has been in Donetsk, with Russian forces moving west of Bakhmut towards Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Siversk and Kupyansk.

Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov has claimed victory in these areas, with Putin awarding the Hero of Russia Medal to the military commander of Russia Forces West, Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev, for the capture of Kupyansk on 9 December.

However, on 12 December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was filmed in Kupyansk with Ukrainian Chief of Staff General Oleksandr Syrsky claiming that Kupyansk remained under Kyiv’s control. In unverified reports, Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev is reported missing as of 14 December.

In the midst of claim and counter-claim, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov in an end of year assessment has stated that Putin’s forces have captured approximately 6,000 square kilometres of territory in the Donbas in 2025.

Despite secondary assaults to the north in the Kharkiv direction and south in the direction west towards Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia, Putin’s winter offensive has failed to gain momentum.

Critically, Ukraine’s strategically vital military hubs from Lyman in the north, south through Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka remain functioning – effectively re-supplying and reinforcing Ukrainian positions and counterattacks along the Donetsk front.

Despite claims that Ukraine’s defence is ‘collapsing’ during 2025, Kyiv has managed to continue to rotate up to 20,000 troops per month to the eastern front.

However, Ukraine’s casualties have been significant. Although Kyiv does not publish these figures, it is estimated that up to 500,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed and seriously injured to date.

As we approach the fourth anniversary of........

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