THE GOVERNMENT’S LATEST economic progress report signals a quiet but important shift that Ireland is no longer forecasting the future but is instead bracing for it.

The three-scenario framework presented by Simon Harris and Jack Chambers is, on the surface, sensible, laying out a baseline, a deterioration and a worst-case outlook.

But the need for such an approach underscores a deeper truth that uncertainty now defines the economic landscape. And yet, for all its strengths, the report remains rooted in conventional thinking.

The most striking intervention came from Chambers’ warning on stagflation, a fundamentally different condition where slow growth, high inflation and rising unemployment collide.

It’s also something Ireland has limited modern experience navigating, as it was last seen in the early 1980s, but it is being experienced in our closest neighbours in the UK.

This raises a critical question: are three scenarios enough? Perhaps there needs to be a fourth, which is not simply a deeper downturn, but a structurally different future. One where inflation remains persistently high due to supply constraints, labour shortages, and geopolitical fragmentation, even as growth weakens. In that world,........

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