MUCH OF THE analysis I offer in this space and elsewhere flows, at least in part, from spending an exorbitant amount of time poring over polling data. Of course, there are frequently repeated, rather dismissive maxims, such as “the only poll that matters is on Election Day”.

Indeed, the polls are occasionally wrong, but of late, owing to increasingly scientific methodologies, the opinion surveys are typically pretty accurate.

That said, I think that the two polls conducted in Dublin Central and Galway West, where people will choose successors to Paschal Donohoe of the World Bank and President Catherine Connolly, mightn’t necessarily tell the tale, especially given the relatively small sample and slightly higher margin of error in each. That said, again, these polls have been important in myriad ways and are the only guide keen watchers have to go on.

So, as Dubliners and Galwegians prepare to do their civic duty, what can we anticipate will transpire when the votes are counted on Saturday? With an abundance of currently unanswerable questions in the ether and without wishing to make hard and fast prognostications that could leave egg on my face, let’s consider the best and worst case scenarios for the key players.

Who’s in the picture?

The Social Democrats must be encouraged, possibly confident, behind closed doors. Daniel Ennis is the odds-on favourite in the capital, and Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich is definitely in the mix in the west. If both are victorious, the Social Democrats will be the story, and the party led by the popular Holly Cairns will get a major boost. Even if only Ennis prevails and Nic Fhionnlaoich........

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