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Since February 28, 2026 the world has been waking each day to news of the war in West Asia, struggling to make sense of oil prices rising and falling. The collapse of peace talks over the weekend, followed by the imposition of a US naval blockade, sharply escalated the crisis and sent oil markets into disarray. Brent crude surged toward $104 on Monday, April 13, before retreating on expectations of a potential diplomatic thaw. Market sentiment improved after renewed signals that talks between the United States and Iran could resume, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions, with Brent trading at $95.2 on April 15.

The war involving the US, Israel, and Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into the epicentre of global economic anxiety. Tehran has employed its geographic leverage, slashing vessel traffic to less than 10% of the daily average of 138 ships. This has disrupted the transit of nearly 15 million barrels of crude and condensates, alongside 20% of global LNG supplies, reverberating across the entire energy value chain from upstream production to midstream transport, downstream refining, and petrochemicals.

While Donald Trump has indicated that talks with Iran could resume this week, the blockade continues. No ceasefire has been reached in Lebanon, where Israeli forces and Hezbollah continue to trade attacks in South Lebanon, and Iran has escalated strikes against its neighbours. As the West Asia war enters its second month, the world should be under no illusion that the consequences of this crisis for energy markets will be short-lived. What is unfolding is not simply volatility but a structural shock, embedding fragility into the global economy and reshaping the future of energy security.

The current crisis is the direct consequence of poor strategic choices made by the Trump administration, whose tariff policies in 2025 provoked China into weaponising its rare earths dominance. While that confrontation ended after Washington rolled back duties, Iran’s far more intractable use of the Strait of Hormuz has created a disruption that is proving harder to bargain.

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