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Srinagar: Seven years after the Union government revoked Article 370 and reorganised Jammu and Kashmir into a Union territory, the security situation in the region presents a mixed picture. While official data points to a substantial decline in terror-related fatalities and street violence in Kashmir compared to the years preceding August 2019, militant attacks continue.

A.S. Dulat, a former spymaster and former special director of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), told The Wire that the situation is fine at times, and not so good at others, adding that security in Jammu and Kashmir depends on ‘which way Kashmiris lean’, and ‘what Pakistan is up to’. 

In recent years, the valley has witnessed terror attacks, although the number is comparatively low, with violence increasingly shifting from the Kashmir valley to the Jammu region. Just a few days ago, an attack on non-local labourers challenged peace claims made by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party government in New Delhi. 

“The two militant attacks in the past 10 days, together with the disproportionate response by the security forces, which detained 2,500 people for questioning, show that the situation remains as precarious as ever and the conflict as unresolved as ever,” said Praveen Donthi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, speaking to The Wire.

Dulat, on the other hand, said, “When Delhi says that it’s normal, it’s not normal. Everybody knows it. The number of security forces deployed itself is an indication that it is not normal. But you can say it’s not out of control.”

The Union government has consistently argued that the constitutional changes of August 5, 2019, have weakened separatism, improved security and brought greater stability to the region. Opposition parties and independent security experts, however, caution against attributing every improvement solely to the abrogation of Article 370. They credit multiple factors, including enhanced counter-insurgency operations, the 2021 India-Pakistan ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC), advanced surveillance technology used by the forces and changing militant strategies.

Terror-related fatalities decline

Security experts say one of the clearest indicators of the changing security landscape is the decline in overall terror-related fatalities.

“Since 2019, militancy has evolved strategically, first going underground and then shifting the theatre of militancy to the Jammu region. Although security indicators show an improvement in the situation, it’s a superficial calm, and the region is a tinderbox of anger and alienation. The Pahalgam attack in April and the Delhi blast in November underscore this fact,” Donthi said. 

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Jammu and Kashmir recorded 452 terror-related deaths in 2018, the year before the constitutional changes. The number declined to 283 in 2019, rose to 321 in 2020, and again fell to 274 in 2021, 253 in 2022, 134 in 2023 and 127 in 2024.

The year 2025 ended as the least violent year in Jammu and Kashmir in more than two decades, with 92 people killed in terror-related violence – 28 civilians, 17 security personnel and 46 militants – according to the SATP data compiled from official and independent trackers.

A large share of the civilian deaths came in a single attack. On April 22,........

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