As the United States and Israel escalate toward war with Iran, India faces catastrophic consequences from its strategic alignment with Washington and Tel Aviv. The Modi government’s embrace of Benjamin Netanyahu – a war criminal wanted by the International Criminal Court – and its comprehensive surrender through the recent trade agreement have positioned India on the wrong side of a conflict threatening its energy security, economic stability, regional relationships and geopolitical standing.

The costs compound across dimensions: immediate economic devastation from oil price spikes; geopolitical isolation as Arab states turn away; permanent strategic subordination; and complete moral bankruptcy from supporting genocide and now war against Iran.

Energy insecurity: the immediate economic catastrophe

India’s energy vulnerability constitutes the most immediate threat. Importing 85% of its crude oil, predominantly from the Gulf, India has already lost the advantage of Iranian oil at competitive prices with rupee-denominated transactions by complying with American sanctions.

War devastates this precarious situation. Iran can disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, through which 21 million barrels per day flow – one-third of seaborne oil trade. Iran’s missile, drone, naval and proxy capabilities can attack tankers, facilities and terminals across the Gulf. Sustained disruption would send oil prices from $80-90 per barrel to $150-200 or higher.

At $150 per barrel, India’s annual import bill increases by $75-100 billion, placing massive pressure on its current account deficit and forex reserves. Inflation could reach the double digits, devastating purchasing power. The RBI faces impossible choices: raise rates, killing growth; or allow inflation to spiral.

India’s crude stockpiles last only 20-25 days. War disrupting Gulf supplies for weeks means not merely high prices but actual shortages – fuel rationing, industrial cuts, power failures, economic paralysis. Manufacturing, aviation, transport, power and agriculture would face a crisis. The informal economy would be devastated. Fiscal deterioration would force cuts in development and welfare. Foreign investment would flee.

India’s alignment with US-Israel makes catastrophe more likely. By positioning with war prosecutors rather than maintaining neutrality, India eliminated its diplomatic options. Iranian retaliation has targeted states aligned with India. Arab producers watching India embrace Netanyahu have less incentive to prioritise Indian needs. India has no leverage because it subordinated foreign policy to American priorities.

Geopolitical isolation: losing the Arab world

War accelerates geopolitical realignment, with India on the losing side.

In public perception, the US strike against Iran while negotiations were ongoing is just the arrogance of a bully, as Trump is increasingly seen to be. There is absolutely no justification for this war. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the top political and technology leadership is resented across the Muslim world and beyond. The killing of 165 schoolgirls and staff in US bombing is an act of abominable cruelty.

This might trigger a wave against the US-Israel axis, setting in motion new geopolitical reconfiguration. Because if you feed a bully, you are potentially risking your own safety.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, having pursued a détente with Iran to reduce tensions and focus on development, will find prolonged war incompatible with their interests. Infrastructure destruction, trade disruption, refugee flows and conflict expansion threaten development goals.

China’s mediation of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement demonstrated Gulf states diversifying from a sole reliance on Washington. Prolonged war will accelerate this, with Gulf states positioning themselves as neutral or as mediators rather than American allies.

For India, this is disastrous. Over eight million Indian nationals work in GCC countries, sending home remittances that make up a sizable share of the $135 billion (2024-25) annual total, supporting millions of families. India depends on Gulf states for a majority of its energy imports. Trade with the GCC stood at around $180 billion (2024-25). Gulf sovereign wealth investments are crucial for infrastructure.

Each relationship is jeopardised by India’s visible alignment with US-Israel, which is prosecuting war against Muslims while facing growing Arab opposition.

The impact would manifest through multiple channels: worker treatment could deteriorate if anti-India sentiment grows; employment opportunities could contract; remittances could decline; energy contracts may be offered on less favourable terms; investments may be redirected; trade agreements could stall. India’s relationships built through decades of balanced diplomacy will erode.

This isolation extends beyond the Gulf. Iran has been an important partner: with the Chabahar port providing access to Afghanistan and Central Asia; energy cooperation offering alternatives to the Gulf; and the country acting as a northern anchor for connectivity. Aligning with US-Israel against Iran forfeits these relationships. Afghanistan and the Central Asian states will question Indian reliability. Pakistan will exploit India’s positioning to strengthen its relationship with Iran and portray India as an American subordinate. Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia will view this alignment with concern.

The broader pattern is systematic isolation within the Global South. Countries opposing colonialism, supporting Palestinian rights and resisting American unilateralism see India’s transformation from a Non-Aligned leader to an American subordinate. The Netanyahu embrace damaged India’s credibility; war against Iran would complete that destruction.

Strategic subordination: death of independence

The most profound cost may be a permanent loss of strategic autonomy. For decades, India pursued autonomy – maintaining relationships across divisions, balancing powers and formulating positions based on Indian interests. This maximised its diplomatic options and gave it disproportionate influence.

Modi has systematically destroyed this autonomy for alignment with American priorities. On Israel, Iran, Russia and trade – India’s positions converged with Washington even where they contradicted Indian interests. The US-India trade agreement represents comprehensive economic surrender, devastating farmers and workers while enriching American corporations. The Netanyahu embrace demonstrated a willingness to support war crimes when Washington supports them. India’s positioning indicates it will support or not oppose American actions regardless of the consequences.

This is a client-patron relationship, not a partnership. The US secures Indian market access, the implementation of its strategic priorities and support for regional dominance. India receives arms at premium prices, technology promises rarely materialising and recognition as a ‘partner’ – but it is actually a subordinate implementing American South Asian agendas.

War will deepen subordination. Having positioned itself with US-Israel, India cannot independently press for resolution, negotiate with Iran, maintain regional relationships or protect divergent interests. India will be expected to support sanctions hurting economic interests, reduce ties with Iran serving connectivity goals, accept oil price increases and provide diplomatic cover. Each expectation is backed by implicit or explicit pressure.

The long-term consequence is India ceasing to be an independent power, becoming instead a large subordinate implementing others’ agendas. When India speaks in forums, others ask not what India thinks but what Washington instructed. Strategic autonomy once lost is extraordinarily difficult to regain because years of subordination destroy belief in independence.

The China factor: empowering the rival

India’s alignment inadvertently strengthens China’s position. China has cultivated extensive relationships with Iran, the Gulf states and the Muslim world through Belt and Road investments and diplomatic engagement. As the US and Israel prosecute war with Indian support, China positions itself as an alternative: presenting economic partnership without ideological demands, investment without military entanglement, diplomacy without requiring sides.

The contrast is stark. India embraces those bombing Muslim countries while China invests in developing Muslim-majority countries. India subordinates its interests while China maintains independent relationships. India’s Gulf workers face backlash while Chinese economic presence expands. Gulf states seeking alternatives to exclusive American dependence turn to China, which mediated the Saudi-Iran détente.

In Pakistan, India’s alignment provides ammunition for propaganda. Islamabad portrays India as an enemy of Muslims globally – a supporter of genocide against Palestinians and war against Iran. This narrative resonates because India’s actions – its embrace of Netanyahu, its silence on Gaza, its US-Israel alignment, its ambivalence on aggression – confirm it. Pakistan strengthens its relationships with Iran, the Gulf states, Turkey and the broader Muslim world, while India is an American subordinate.

In Central Asia and Afghanistan, China’s connectivity faces less competition as India’s isolation of Iran undermines regional strategies. Chabahar becomes less viable if India-Iran relations deteriorate. China’s regional infrastructure dominance faces less of a challenge from an India isolated and identified with American alliance systems that Central Asian states avoid. India strengthens China’s position while weakening its own – precisely the opposite of what its China policy seeks.

Economic warfare: sanctions and subordination

War will involve comprehensive American sanctions requiring Indian compliance damaging to Indian economic interests. The US uses secondary sanctions threatening third countries maintaining relationships with targeted states.

India already complied with US pressure by reducing its Iranian and Russian oil imports despite the economic cost involved. Further escalation could require India ending its remaining trade, abandoning Chabahar, severing banking and prohibiting Iranian business. Compliance with each of these conditions has economic costs while demonstrating subordination, encouraging future pressure.

The impact extends beyond direct trade. Global financial systems operate under American oversight through dollar dominance, SWIFT and legal jurisdiction over international banking. India chose compliance, subordinating economic policy to American geopolitical strategies. The long-term consequence is the forfeiture of alternatives to American-dominated systems.

Iran has been a partner in rupee-denominated trade bypassing dollar transactions. Russia explored similar arrangements. These alternatives would give India freedom from American financial control. By aligning with Washington and complying with sanctions even at economic cost to itself, India demonstrates it will not pursue alternatives, ensuring continued subordination.

Moral bankruptcy and domestic consequences

India suffered catastrophic moral damage from its embrace of Netanyahu – legitimising a war criminal conducting genocide. Support for or acquiescence in war against Iran would complete this moral collapse. India would be complicit not merely in Gaza’s destruction but in a war against 88 million people, potentially including civilian infrastructure attacks, economic devastation and humanitarian catastrophe.

The hypocrisy would be complete: a government claiming civilisational values supports those committing war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The domestic consequences will be severe. India has approximately 200 million Muslim citizens watching their government embrace those killing Muslims in Palestine and attacking Iran. The message is unmistakable: the Hindu nationalist government sides with those who kill Muslims and views Muslim lives as expendable when geopolitical convenience demands it. This has intensified alienation and fear; support for war will deepen it, confirming they are seen as civilisational enemies whose concerns are irrelevant.

The broader damage extends beyond Muslims. Many Indians are troubled by the abandonment of principles, subordination to American power and support for atrocities. The Netanyahu embrace and support for the war against Iran force them to confront the fact that their country has become something unrecognisable – a state supporting genocide, aligning with war criminals and subordinating national interests to foreign powers.

Also read: Prime Minister Modi Humiliated India During His Visit to Israel

Internationally, India’s moral standing will be irretrievable. India will be remembered not for its independence struggle or anti-colonial leadership, but for its prime minister embracing a war criminal and its government supporting the war against Iran.

India retains a narrow range of options to limit damage, though Modi’s actions closed pathways available before. The immediate requirement is distancing itself from US-Israeli war planning. India should make clear it will not support military action against Iran, that it maintains independent relationships serving Indian interests, and will not comply with sanctions damaging its energy security and economic interests.

India should revive engagement with Iran, including resuming oil imports, advancing Chabahar and exploring rupee-denominated trade bypassing dollar systems. Regionally, India should repair its Gulf relationships by making clear that its Iran policy serves Indian interests rather than reflecting alignment with US-Israel. Domestically, the government should be held accountable for strategic disasters: the Netanyahu embrace, trade surrender, destruction of its autonomy, positioning to support the Iran war – each represents a failure of strategic judgment that cost India dearly.

But realistically, Modi will likely not make these corrections because ideological commitments and political requirements override strategic rationality. Hindu nationalism’s identification with Israel, and Modi’s personal investment in Netanyahu, comprehensive alignment with Washington, and domestic calculations favouring anti-Muslim positioning over national interest suggest that his government will continue down the current path despite the mounting costs.

Conclusion: the price of subordination

India faces a comprehensive disaster from its alignment with US-Israel on the eve of war against Iran. The economic costs through oil price spikes will devastate an economy struggling with unemployment, inequality and limited forex reserves. Geopolitical isolation as Arab states turn away jeopardises relationships on which millions of workers and families depend. Strategic subordination permanently compromises the independence that once defined Indian foreign policy. China’s empowerment undermines India’s position across competitive regions. The Modi government’s moral bankruptcy completes India’s transformation from champion of oppressed into accomplice of oppressors.

Each cost was avoidable. India could have maintained balanced relationships serving its interests – engaging with Iran and the Gulf states, maintaining independence from American demands, refusing to embrace war criminals. Modi chose otherwise, systematically destroying diplomatic flexibility, moral authority and strategic autonomy that previous governments built through far more challenging environments.

As war against Iran unfolds, India will pay the price. The suffering falls disproportionately on the poor – those bearing inflation and economic crisis, whose family members work in the Gulf under precarious conditions, who cannot shield themselves from geopolitical disasters created by their government’s strategic failures. The responsibility lies with a government that mistook subordination for partnership, sacrificed national interests for ideological alignment and embraced war criminals while claiming to pursue national greatness.

The question is whether India will continue down this catastrophic path or find the political will to change course before the damage becomes irreversible. The latter requires acknowledging that recent strategic direction failed, that alignment with US-Israel serves neither Indian interests nor values, and that independence – including the willingness to oppose American policies threatening Indian welfare – is prerequisite for any claim to be an emerging power.

Until that acknowledgment occurs and results in substantive policy change, India will continue its trajectory from formerly independent state into subordinate partner in an axis defined by genocide, war crimes and the systematic oppression of Muslim populations. That this contradicts everything India once claimed to stand for is a tragedy; that it is being actively chosen despite mounting evidence of costs is something worse.

Anand Teltumbde is former CEO of PIL and professor at IIT Kharagpur and GIM, Goa. He is also a writer and civil rights activist.

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