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Premier Susan Holt Is Spending Big in New Brunswick. Will She Regret It?

The governing Liberals are taking on record-high debt to invest in health care

In 2024, Susan Holt’s resounding election win was a breath of fresh air for many New Brunswickers. The Liberal leader’s empathy and optimism stood in stark contrast to the dour and divisive governing style of outgoing Progressive Conservative premier Blaine Higgs. During his tenure, Higgs faced criticism for refusing to fund abortions at the province’s only clinic and introducing an education policy critics say targeted trans and gender-diverse students. With a laser-like focus on health care and affordability, Holt swept to power, becoming the province’s first female premier. Higgs lost his seat and resigned as Conservative leader.

This year, New Brunswick’s provincial government projects a $1.39 billion deficit

Provincial leaders across Canada often choose deficits over social service cuts in the hopes debts will sort themselves out in the future

Critics warn tariff threats, reduced federal transfers, and clampdowns from bond markets could eliminate New Brunswick’s fiscal wiggle room

Since then, the premier has enjoyed an enviable honeymoon period, continuing to ride high in public polling. But in a province grappling with slowing economic growth and a rapidly aging population, Holt’s March budget backtracked on a key election pledge to balance the books in each year of her mandate. Instead, her government now projects a record-breaking $1.39 billion deficit this year alone, growing the province’s debt to historic levels and causing one major credit agency to downgrade the province’s financial outlook.

While many New Brunswickers might have been relieved by the lack of major spending cuts and a huge investment in health care, Mario Levesque, a political scientist at Mount Allison University, believes that by banking on future growth in areas like mining and federal defence spending, Holt’s government is reading the numbers through rose-coloured glasses. “There’s a thinking that perhaps the economy will change,” says Levesque. “But it’s a huge gamble.”

Holt’s tricky balancing act is symptomatic of the tough choices facing Canadian premiers. In the face of exploding health care costs, a burgeoning demand for social services, and ongoing global uncertainty, provincial leaders are choosing deficits over cuts in the belief that ballooning debts will sort themselves out once economic conditions improve. It’s an approach some experts say risks financial disaster.

Herb Emery, an economist at the University of New Brunswick, believes the current generation of premiers have become accustomed to justifying higher spending as a way to cushion Canadians from economic shocks, like the COVID-19 pandemic and the current trade war with the United States. Spending huge sums on supports like CERB-type benefits or one-time affordability measures like........

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