While the world focuses on the Pacific Ocean for signs of a possible “Super El Niño,” new research from Jerusalem’s Hebrew University suggests that temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean may influence prolonged dry winter spells in the Eastern Mediterranean, months in advance.

The findings could improve seasonal forecasting of drought risk in one of the world’s most water-stressed regions.

The study, due to be published in Atmospheric Research, was carried out by doctoral student Victor Murphy and Assaf Hochman of the university’s Earth Sciences Institute, with Sigalit Berkovic of the Israel Institute for Biological Research.

Forecasting dry spells lasting weeks during the Levant’s winter is difficult.

The team examined how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a recurring pattern of warming and cooling across the tropical Indian Ocean, might be connected to these arid spells.

By analyzing more than 70 years of climate observations and atmospheric data, the researchers discovered that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole are linked to large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation spanning the Indian Ocean, Eurasia, and the Eastern Mediterranean.

During a positive phase, warm waters are pushed to the western part of the Indian Ocean, and cold waters from the deep rise to the surface in the Eastern Indian Ocean. These shifts favor stable high-pressure systems........

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