For many Israelis, the first days of fighting with Iran have felt like a resumption of the June war: their days and nights interrupted by sporadic rocket warnings, familiar scrambles for shelter, and the sounds of thunderous interceptions or earth-shaking booms when a missile or shrapnel impacts.

Yet Iran’s launches in response to Operation Roaring Lion since Saturday have been notably different from previous rounds’ large barrages, experts say, though there is no consensus regarding what factors lie behind the shifts in size and timing and whether they reflect Tehran’s degraded missile capabilities or simply different tactics being employed.

During the June war, and in two previous attacks, Iran fired dozens of missiles at a time, using the numbers to try to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses. This time, the Islamic Republic has seemingly largely limited itself to a few missiles per attack, though the Israel Defense Forces has refrained from providing specific details on the number of missiles fired in each volley.

“We didn’t see salvos until [Monday],” Tal Inbar, a veteran expert in aviation policy, space and missile issues, told The Times of Israel.

In the June conflict, which caught Iran flat-footed, the Islamic Republic eventually responded with two large barrages totaling 150 missiles between them. Subsequent days saw more large barrages, which petered off toward the end of the 12-day conflict.

On Saturday, the first day of the current war, Iran fired even more missiles — around 170 in total — but spread them in smaller salvos of two or three missiles at a time rather than concentrated in large opening salvos. The volleys targeted not only Israel but also Gulf states and American bases in the region.

Though each launch consisted of only a few missiles, they came in relatively quick succession, in contrast to the longer periods of respite between launches experienced in the June war.

According to Inbar, the shift in tactics could stem from several factors, ranging from strategic decisions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Israel’s established air superiority over Iran.

Other analysts argue that Iran’s altered launch tempo may also reflect changes in the US-Israel offensive against Tehran’s missile infrastructure.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran program, noted that, unlike in June, Israel and the US are now targeting not only missile launchers but also production and support facilities. That means Iran is more concerned about conserving what missiles it has, knowing it will be difficult to produce more.

“The Israelis and the Americans are now destroying the facilities that exist on the western side [of Iran], which are the ones that allow them to strike furthest west,” Ben Taleblu said on the FDD Action platform. “The destruction of these bases builds on the targeting logic that we saw in the 12-day war because rather than just go after the archer and have to defend against the arrow, this collapses the facility to rob the regime of both the archers and the arrows that it has.”

According to Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, with the US taking part in the bombing campaigns Iran was losing launchers and missiles at a faster rate than in June.

“The US and Israel have increased their operational tempo and sortie rates to destroy missiles and launchers before Tehran can use them,” he........

© The Times of Israel