For six weeks, the United States and Israel pummeled Iran’s military infrastructure — with US Central Command saying it had struck over 13,000 targets, and Israel reporting some 4,000 of its own. Yet even in the final days before a two-week ceasefire was announced, ballistic missiles continued to be launched at Israel and other states in the region.

While Tehran’s rate of launches dropped sharply as the war progressed — from roughly 80 missiles fired at Israel on the first day to around 10-20 per day over the following weeks — the sustained attacks have raised questions about the extent of the damage inflicted in both the most recent war and an initial round of fighting in June.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently told reporters that the US-Israel bombing campaign had “functionally destroyed” Iran’s missile program and rendered its military “combat ineffective for years to come.”

Yet the IDF says over the roughly six weeks of fighting, it managed to set back Iran’s missile project only partially, owing in part to the hardened nature of underground facilities, while slowing, but not significantly halting, the buildup of the Islamic Republic’s stockpile.

With ceasefire talks between the US and Iran set to resume Tuesday, Israel is concerned that the ballistic missile issue is not being included in the talks and that the sides may come to an agreement that allows Iran to continue building up its missile program, Army Radio reported Monday, citing a senior Israeli source.

Speaking to Reuters Monday, a senior Iranian source said Tehran’s “defensive capabilities,” including its missile program, were not open to negotiation with the United States.

While Israel believes it caused significant damage to Iran’s weapons program,  recent estimates by IDF intelligence officers indicated that Iran still possesses around 1,000 ballistic missiles, down from roughly 2,500 at the outset of the war, and will soon recover the ability to start building up its stockpile again.

According to figures released by the Israel Defense Forces, the military also destroyed or disabled around 60% of Iran’s estimated 470 ballistic missile launchers. Around 200 of the launchers were destroyed in strikes, while another 80 were considered to be non-operational after the IAF struck tunnel entrances to subterranean facilities where they are stored.

Similar assessments emerged after the 12-day war in June 2025, when Israeli officials said roughly half of Tehran’s 3,000 ballistic missiles and 80 percent of its 500 launchers had been destroyed, according to a Washington Post report — figures that underscore both the scale of the damage inflicted by Israel and Iran’s apparent ability to replenish its capabilities, as evidenced by its continued missile fire in the latest conflict.

Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28, alongside the US, with the stated goal of destroying Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, as well as its nuclear enrichment capabilities, while creating the opportunity for regime change.

The IDF has said that the most significant blow during the war was to Iran’s arms production industry, with the military reporting that it struck all of the key sites used to develop weapons that threaten Israel. Israel has said that these strikes have caused........

© The Times of Israel