US-Iran talks on long-term deal doomed as long as both sides insist they won the war
Entering marathon talks with Iran in Pakistan over the weekend, the US seemed to have had its sights set on hammering out a quick agreement.
“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” said Vice President JD Vance, who led the talks, after the parley fell apart following a single marathon session.
But the expectation that an agreement could be hammered out in one day was never a reasonable one.
Both the US and Iran are declaring victory, which is to be entirely expected. But it seems that both sides actually believe their own bluster, meaning neither is willing to give up much in talks.
Washington maintains that it obliterated Iran on the battlefield and has insisted on the type of concessions it thinks should come with a redounding victory. But Iran contends that it did not lose, and is not about to accept US diktats that it feels reach beyond whatever gains America may have achieved in its joint bombing campaign with Israel.
In the words of Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: “The US tried to achieve at the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war.”
With Iran refusing to wave a white flag, any concessions it may make in talks will have to be matched by far-reaching compromises on the US side, especially around sanctions relief.
Iran’s 10-point plan reads like the type of settlement a victor would impose on a vanquished foe. According to the Islamic Republic, the proposal includes “continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of [nuclear] enrichment, [and] lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions.”
Other key demands in the blueprint include a US military withdrawal from the Middle East, an end to attacks on Iran and its allies, the release of frozen Iranian assets and a UN Security Council resolution making any deal binding.
Tehran may be fully aware that most of its demands are wildly unrealistic, even as a starting point in negotiations. But even if Iran is willing to compromise on some of them, it seems entirely unwilling to budge on its right to continue enriching uranium.
US nuclear weapons expert David Albright pointed out that........
