The Knesset’s overwhelming vote in favor of a government-backed bill that would dissolve the legislature last week appeared to set Israel on the path to early elections.

The measure must still go through committee and pass three more Knesset readings, but what’s at stake in the legislation is not really whether Israelis head to the polls in September or October. Rather, analysts and political insiders describe the dissolution process as the latest front in an ongoing power struggle between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, who are seeking to force movement on legislation exempting yeshiva students from military service.

For now, the fate of whether and when the Knesset dissolves is up to the coalition. After the preliminary vote, the next step is for the Knesset House Committee, led by coalition whip Ofir Katz, to begin deliberations on the measure, including determining a date for elections.

A hearing on the bill is possible as early as Monday, and the bill could be passed within days, though the coalition may also decide to drag out the process or let it stall out completely.

Politicians and commentators have spent days speculating about the various factors at play and game out when which parties may prefer for the vote to take place. The current window is fairly narrow, with the election currently scheduled for October 27 and the earliest realistic date in early September. Those seven weeks are already crowded with Jewish holidays, the UN General Assembly and the heavily freighted anniversary of the October 7, 2023, massacre.

But according to several analysts interviewed by The Times of Israel, the debate over timing itself is largely a mask for a larger internal dispute between Netanyahu and Haredi leaders.

“That difference of seven weeks between September 1 and October 27 is unlikely to make any difference,” pollster and political analyst Dahlia Scheindlin told The Times of Israel, noting that the ultra-Orthodox parties in particular draw support from a highly stable and defined electorate unlikely to shift their votes based on the calendar.

Some had speculated that ultra-Orthodox parties favored an early September election, riding the religious fervor that takes hold in the lead-up to the High Holy Days.

But Scheindlin argued that the dissolution push was primarily intended to strengthen the Haredi parties’ bargaining position and increase pressure on Netanyahu to advance a draft exemption law, or at least give the impression that they are doing so.

The dissolution vote came days after the United Torah Judaism party announced that it would push to dissolve the Knesset over the coalition’s failure to pass........

© The Times of Israel