The newly announced merger between former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Opposition Leader Yair Lapid marks the clearest attempt yet to consolidate the opposition bloc ahead of the next election, reviving the political partnership that succeeded in toppling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2021 when they led a short-lived diverse coalition of right-wing, centrist and left-wing parties.

While the merger reflects familiar strategic calculations — including pooling resources, maximizing seats and projecting unity — its real significance lies in the unresolved questions it raises: whether the alliance can meaningfully shift the balance of power, how former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s decision to join or run alone could reshape the race, and whether a potential breakaway “Likud B” faction on the right might ultimately determine who forms the next government.

Prof. Assaf Shapira, head of the Israel Democracy Institute’s Political Reform Program, noted that despite some new faces, including Eisenkot’s Yashar!, Yair Golan’s The Democrats and Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists entering the political arena, the broader dynamics of the Bennett-Lapid union to unseat Netanyahu remain strikingly familiar.

“There are a few new players, but basically we are in the same situation, and it’s the same game so far,” he said.

The merger reflects clear strategic incentives for both leaders, most evidently for Lapid, whose Yesh Atid party — currently the largest opposition party and the second-largest Knesset faction with 24 seats — could fall to just five seats in the next election, barely clearing the electoral threshold, according to recent polling.

A joint run with Bennett, who has consistently polled as one of the two strongest parties in the opposition bloc alongside Eisenkot, would allow Lapid to improve his projected seat share and shore up his political position.

However, Pollster Mitchell Barak of Keevoon Research Strategy & Communications said Bennett needed the merger as much as Lapid.

“People underestimated Lapid up until now and put too much credit in the polls,” he said, adding that the Yesh Atid leader “has been around for a long time and was the one who put together the last government. A lot of people would have come back to Lapid had he stuck around on his own.”

Bennett, Barak argued, had no choice but to enter the merger, primarily due to mounting competition from Eisenkot, whose security credentials have reshaped the political battlefield on the center-right, and in many recent polls has been neck-and-neck with or even overtaking Bennett.

“Once Eisenkot entered the race, Bennett had to give up his dream of getting those right-of-center security voters. Bennett wasn’t saying or doing anything for the past year, and yet trying to convince people that he could get voters from the right and the left by being in the center and doing nothing,” Barak argued, adding that voters prioritizing security and military experience were increasingly gravitating toward Eisenkot.

“Bennett had no choice but to break center and leave, which means going with Lapid,” he said.

The former prime minister stands to benefit in several ways from the union, including from Yesh Atid’s significantly greater state funding, tied in part to the number of parliamentary seats a party currently holds — a system that makes it inherently more difficult for newer parties to compete.

“Bennett’s party would have received from the state about NIS 11 million ($3.68 million), but Lapid will get about NIS 27 million ($9 million) because he has 24 seats in the Knesset,” Shapira said.

The union cements Bennett’s shift toward the political center and is consistent with several moves he has made in recent months to broaden his appeal, including adding former government technocrats and reservists critical of the Netanyahu government to its slate, and earlier this week voicing support for public transportation on Shabbat and civil marriage.

Shifting the balance of power, or merely redistributing opposition votes?

The central question is now whether the merger materially strengthens the opposition bloc’s chances of unseating Netanyahu.

Recent polling had suggested that if Eisenkot, Lapid and Bennett ran together, their combined ticket would get 38 seats, making it the largest faction in the Knesset, but also that it would not significantly change the respective sizes of the two main rival blocs.

Shapira argued that just the impression that the opposition bloc is “more coordinated, more united, and a more serious threat than they have been until now,” could generate renewed energy among voters, including those who might otherwise stay home. Large parties also tend to animate turnout, he noted, and if Eisenkot were to join the alliance, that effect could intensify.

Still, it remains unclear whether such enthusiasm would meaningfully shift the balance of power or simply redistribute votes within the opposition camp, which is precisely how the coalition appears to view the development.

A coalition source told The Times of Israel that the government sees the merger as little more than a reshuffling of voters within the same ideological bloc rather than a substantive threat to its rule, echoing a post on X by Likud MK Eliyahu Revivo: “We don’t interfere with how the left divides its votes.”

“They have a more united front against Netanyahu and definitely will have some momentum,” said Barak of the merger, “but I think this helps Netanyahu because it defines who he’s running against. I don’t think he sees them as very serious contenders.”

The biggest remaining variable for the opposition bloc, and something that wasn’t a factor the last time Lapid and Bennett tried to form a government, is Eisenkot and whether he joins the “Together” slate or continues his run alone.

“It would be very natural for Eisenkot to join them,” Shapira said, arguing that his addition to the slate would generate additional enthusiasm and attract voters that Bennett and Lapid struggle to reach on their own.

Eisenkot’s military credentials as a former IDF chief of staff, combined with his personal story as a bereaved father whose son, Gal, was killed fighting in the Gaza war, have given him credibility and sympathy among right-leaning voters, including some within Likud, which Bennett lost after he formed a government that included the Arab-majority party Ra’am and left-wing parties.

At the same time, Shapira cautioned that Eisenkot’s joining the merger is not necessarily to the bloc’s advantage, as he may be able to draw right-wing voters more effectively by running solo, since some of his supporters may be reluctant to cast ballots for a slate that includes Lapid.

“Lapid is considered centrist, if not center-left, by right-wing Likud voters, and even if Bennett claims that he is right-wing, he has no sympathy on the right after establishing the previous government,” Shapira said.

Barak agreed, arguing that Eisenkot’s political strength lies precisely in his ability to occupy a distinct electoral lane that could be diluted within a joint slate. Eisenkot’s leverage, he suggested, depends on maintaining that independent identity and positioning himself as the natural alternative leader within the opposition camp.

“I think Eisenkot would add a lot to the slate,” Barak said, but posited that joining such an alliance would harm his own prospects and not actually increase the bloc’s chances of winning.

“It would be wise for him to stay on his own and say, ‘I’m the leader here. I’m the one who can most likely get elected,’” he added.

Efforts to bring the three leaders together have been ongoing for months. Eisenkot was reported to have proposed a merger with Bennett and Lapid in January, and Channel 12 reported last week that the three had held talks on forming a new joint party, tentatively dubbed “New Israel.”

There is still room for Eisenkot to join the unified slate — both Bennett and Lapid made that clear at their Sunday evening press conference — and a three-way alliance could prove “greater than the sum of its parts,” one opposition source told The Times of Israel.

Shapira suggested that leadership ambitions may have been one of the main obstacles to an earlier deal.

“My guess is that [Eisenkot] wants to lead the slate and Bennett has proven repeatedly that he’s not willing to give up first place,” he said, adding that “Eisenkot didn’t agree to be second on the list, and maybe Lapid wasn’t willing to be third.” (Lapid on Sunday said he would do “whatever it takes” to ensure victory.)

A challenge from within Likud

Another emerging development that could reshape the post-election coalition landscape is the effort by senior right-wing figures, including members of Netanyahu’s coalition, to establish a new party tentatively dubbed “Likud B,” aimed at creating a more ‘statesmanlike’ alternative to the ruling party, “free of extremists,” according to a Channel 12 report on Saturday.

The effort involves current and former Likud figures who have had tensions with Netanyahu, including Likud MK Yuli Edelstein, who led the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee before being ousted by the coalition last year due to his blocking its draft exemption law for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, and Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel, who has also opposed that legislation.

Other figures said to be involved include former finance minister Moshe Kahlon, who served as a Likud MK and minister for 10 years before breaking away to form the Kulanu party, later joining a Netanyahu-led coalition and serving as finance minister from 2015 to 2020, and former UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan, who is also reportedly weighing a future bid to lead Likud.

The group has yet to agree on whether to support a Netanyahu-led coalition or back a potential government headed by Bennett or Eisenkot, who have emerged as the frontrunners to unseat Netanyahu.

But a source with knowledge of the talks told The Times of Israel Sunday that the Bennett-Lapid merger could help prod further action by leaders of the moderate right opposed to the current government, especially if the new list proves it can garner increased electoral support.

Shapira also argued that the perception of a united and strengthened opposition could galvanize efforts to form the new party, in part because Netanyahu’s victory may appear less certain, and also because it may benefit from former Bennett voters.

“They compete for the same voters as Bennett and may benefit from his merger with Lapid as some of his supporters could choose to defect to Likud B,” he said.

The strength of the opposition is not the primary driver behind the effort to form “Likud B.” Rather, the central calculation for many of the figures involved — particularly Erdan and Kahlon — is whether launching an independent faction could jeopardize their long-term ambitions to eventually lead Likud.

Barak offered a blunt assessment of that hesitation. “Most people don’t have the guts to form their own party,” he said. “They’re big talkers. They don’t want to take the risk and run on their own.”

For now, a direct leadership contest within Likud remains unlikely while Netanyahu is still politically active. But Shapira noted that the timing question looms large.

“Netanyahu is not a young person, and apparently, he’s also not a very healthy person,” he said.

Netanyahu, 76, revealed Friday that he recently underwent successful treatment for prostate cancer, though he delayed disclosing the diagnosis, saying Iran could have exploited the information for propaganda during the recent war.

“Even if Netanyahu wins this election and he’s prime minister for another four years, there is a very good chance that this will be the last four years,” Shapira added.

As a result, many potential founders of the new Likud B party appear to be waiting to see how and when Netanyahu exits political life before making a decisive move.

“All of them would like to try to become the head of Likud,” he said.

For now, at least, therefore, it is the old-new partnership of Bennett and Lapid that is making the political headlines.

Sam Sokol contributed to this report.

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