The US’s relationship with the Republic of Cuba is a model for regional hegemony that can tolerate hostile regimes

In April 1961, the United States led a failed ground invasion of the Republic of Cuba through the Bay of Pigs, an attempt at regime change that instead cemented the Castro government and strengthened its cooperation with the Soviet Union. In the 65 years since the Bay of Pigs invasion, the US has created in its relationship with Cuba an effective model for regional hegemony that can tolerate hostile regimes.

As Israel’s war with Iran enters its third week, and as the prospects of regime change in Tehran wane, the US’ relationship with Cuba emerges as an essential model for the future of the Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

The US-Cuba model for regional hegemony over hostile regimes contains three core policies:

Sabotage- through the CIA Operation Mongoose the US has continuously supported sabotage operations against political and economic targets in Cuba through local dissident groups, severely weakening the state capacity of the Cuban government and their ability to threaten the US or her interests. Blockade- in October 1962 when the US’ discovered Soviet ballistic missiles housed in Cuba, the US placed the island in a total blockade or “quarantine” to prevent the arrival of additional missiles or otherwise offensive military capabilities. Isolation- the Kennedy-Khrushev Pact at the conclusion of the Cuban Missile Crisis in part facilitated the extraction of Soviet military capabilities from Cuba in exchange for an aversion of a planned US invasion of Cuba, militarily severing Cuba from its foremost state sponsor.

Sabotage- through the CIA Operation Mongoose the US has continuously supported sabotage operations against political and economic targets in Cuba through local dissident groups, severely weakening the state capacity of the Cuban government and their ability to threaten the US or her interests.

Blockade- in October 1962 when the US’ discovered Soviet ballistic missiles housed in Cuba, the US placed the island in a total blockade or “quarantine” to prevent the arrival of additional missiles or otherwise offensive military capabilities.

Isolation- the Kennedy-Khrushev Pact at the conclusion of the Cuban Missile Crisis in part facilitated the extraction of Soviet military capabilities from Cuba in exchange for an aversion of a planned US invasion of Cuba, militarily severing Cuba from its foremost state sponsor.

If the Islamic Republic is to survive this war, it should exist like Cuba; debilitated by sabotage and internationally isolated through a mixture of force and diplomacy. Iran can never again be allowed to amass the nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities it boasted before the war, and can only be tolerated in the framework of Israeli regional hegemony as a near-failed state and an international pariah.

Israel can continue to build regional hegemony even if there is no regime change in Iran. Through a combination of continuous Mossad sabotage, IAF aerial supremacy, and necessary diplomacy with China, Iran’s foremost military sponsor, the Islamic Republic can be maintained in its current degraded state, without nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, or otherwise threatening offensive capabilities, and Israel would be free to act and develop without the encumbrance from Iran.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)